Howdy Carolyn, I took a long time to answer your post asking for my thoughts on NT (Northern Telecom to Nortel) and TLAB...they're just FINE!!! NT split Dec. '98, TLAB splits 5/17, so of the two of 'em TLAB has that growth-room edge because of the split coming. Their year chart both looks the same Movin' Up, since September they look the same as all the other good Net/Com stocks, both into wireless got good alliances, nowhere to go from here but up and down then up again with the rest of 'em, They're In Good Company.
So what's the future of cable/vs. high speed over phone lines? Well, let's not forget satellite, actual TV via antenna, radio, and receiver gizmos either - for wireless internet "by air". First, I think your broker probably isn't so heavy into research in this sector like we are; neither is mine...the broker just looks at numbers and risks so the opinion there has much value from that another standpoint. Now me, I think there's room for both and all; in the near future the cable access will rule with folks who just plain don't want a computer but want the internet and want it all done for 'em, hands down. MSFT has the web tv working with The Bigs...my daughter has friends with internet on tv and says it's lousy and very limited compared to ours. But that's so far...web tv hasn't come roaring out of the gate yet, either. Got lots of 'em out there. TWX runs cable in this area; an internetsting (a misspell but I'll leave it as a freudian slip)article in today's local paper details how TimeWarner is boosting security and has signed theft complaints against some who use "black boxes" to steal cable tv services. Methinks all CableTV Companies will be doing more of this in the future and setting security methods in place, before they allow the wholesale internet cable access set-top box extravaganza we've all been waiting for to be completely released. I also notice there's less fervor about upgrading to fiber-optic, as more new high-speed capabilities inherently possible thru copper wiring are being tested & implemented as Joe pointed out in a previous post, along with the limits of the speed of the cabletv lines as more and more people crowd the wire. It sure doesn't make sense to yank out a whole infrastructure when the speed differences possible would only be noticed by a gauge and undetectable to the user. I don't think there will ever be only one way to access the Internet; I think it'll be like our phone modem start-up going to a choice of satellite, phone modem/cable modem/dsl, digital/cell phone, wireless broadband (isn't that really an expanded version of RADIO?), then wireless TV, then probably walkie-talkie-like gizmos, tv/radio channels, stuff they haven't even mentioned or thought of yet many of which won't be implemented for a large market ultimately. IMHO this last year's Morph of Telecoms and Cable (starting with ATT) gives the message of Who The Middleman Is...T and other Bigs standing like trolls collecting bridge tolls...there never will be much going around them because that's how they make their money and plan to continue. The Trolls will stick together to defend their shared position, too.
They have the weight to lean on usurpers to create some pressure on 'em if they try to go around Paying The Piper to get to Dotcom's Web. Your Bigs are in all these fields now, and if the smaller Companies co-operate with the status quo, they're in (NT and TLAB look to be cooperative so they're ok). MSFT's a cooperative Troll too, for instance. LU is a Great Big Troll for Internet Telephony New Kids, a contract with LU has usually been The Ace Of Spades for these Companies so far, unless they form the alliance with LU and others and stop with that aspect of "stop paying high phone bills" to attract consumers, ever notice that? (for e.g. of this sad story, see VOCLF soap opera so far). Anyway, that's why I still say, at this point in time, any Co. having to do with Internet Telephony (unless it doesn't attempt to go around The Bigs) is destined for the Flatlands. Bigs'll release the IT when they're good and ready and not before...it just isn't gonna work right til then and that's that.
Once IT is fully deployed; there's yer simultaneous access to Internet and Phone...whether by wire or gizmo or air. Most certainly it's not to their interest to deploy IT til they got it all nailed down, parceled up, securitized, priced, and Bogarted. IMHO that's the future...many will be swallowed by some big boa constrictor or other, others will remain cooperatively independent, and the rebels will be looking at the pet shop thru the display window only. Me, I look for cooperation and acquisition possibilities with these telenets. Same with most portals but not all....independent portals are to their interest, as long as they're cooperating with Bigs or Their Venturist Pals. GNET, good fortune for us, is aligned just right at this time.
Well Carolyn, so there ya have it, mulling thoughts around often takes me awhile. Thanks for the inspirationly homework.
Yer pal,
Joan |
