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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marc who wrote (12416)	5/11/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: Chip Anderson	Respond to of 16960

Chip, please -->> don't flame me for this, ( i've removed my ATI cap before writing it. <VBG> No worries mate. Your questions are good ones (I chalk it all up to analyst drivel) and your profile identifies your affiliations. Slicer, Q3 Marine WannaBe

To: Marc who wrote (12416)	5/11/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Marc, let me try and answer your questions: The entire video card market that they are talking about is retail sales data from PCData's participating channel partners. The sample is large enough to consider very reliable, IMO. How can a brokerage firm upgrade just based on these numbers? Easy, the one main sticking point that naysayers were clinging to was that 3dfx wouldn't sell anything without Creative or Diamond. The Voodoo3 reports not only show 3dfx as surviving the change, but thriving in it. This type of brand based sellthrough is truly amazing. Imagine what 3dfx can do with powerful products in the pipeline. My e-mail is grinsell@netwiz.net. I assume the report you are talking about either relies on outrageous numbers too far into the future or talks about some version of the greater fool theory. I'll try to read it with an open mind, but I've already read enough of that type of tripe to turn my stomach. Pat

To: Marc who wrote (12416)	5/11/1999 1:31:00 AM
From: Piranha	Respond to of 16960

<< What's the "entire video card market" >> He's looking at the PC Data numbers that came out this morning. He didn't say how he arrived at his conclusions, although I am reasonably certain he's looking at volume of April shipments only. << If i remember correctly 3DFX have always been in the biggest PC data list. >> That's not a question :) << In this market(graphic accelerator) competition is 5 times what it is in other market. >> Neither is that :) << how could you upgrade a stock based on PC DATA report... that makes NO sense to me. >> It's NOT an upgrade, but a reiteration of the original upgrade from over a month ago: Message 8730412 He wanted to use the strength of sales as evidence supporting his upgrade, I guess, so he took the opportunity to do so. Hope this puts it in perspective. Piranha

To: Marc who wrote (12416)	5/11/1999 1:39:00 AM
From: Obewon	Respond to of 16960

Marc, I thought I'd add a couple of my thoughts regarding your questions" 1) What's the "entire video card market", they obviously don't know what they are talking about here. Agree with you here as the data specifically EXCLUDES the OEM market which is definitely part of the entire video card market. In fact, the PC data is only good for domestic retail sales so the performance of 3dfx in overseas markets (many of which haven't had any appreciable product in the channels) is not considered. 2) If i remember correctly 3DFX have always been in the biggest PC data list. This is the first month 3dfx has been on the list. In previous months it was 3dfx-based products from Diamond and Creative which appeared on PC Data retail sales surveys. 3) In this market(graphic accelerator) competition is 5 times what it is in other market. True and False. While it was certainly true in the past due to the margin cannibalization of Voodoo2 and Banshee brought on by having too many 3Dfx-based boards competing against each other, it is not the case currently. Even with the actual release of TNT2/TNT2 Ultra and Savage4 based boards, the industry is just returning to the competitive position that exists in any other computer component maker. 4) Never understood how a serious brokerage firm could upgrade a stock that is undergoing some transition, inventory ??, acquisition ??, margin ??, capacity, yield, BEFORE at least waiting for some financial report....how could you upgrade a stock based on PC DATA report... that makes NO sense to me. Because there is alot less uncertainty in the company now than there was six months ago. Yes, this quarter's numbers are probably going to look poor but there are every indication that the change in strategy is strengthening the company. Sales of Voodoo3 boards are doing very well (even if they are up against no competition until this week), the merger will be approved by shareholders, the distribution channels have embraced 3dfx, etc. The financial numbers are ALWAYS going to lag a recovery of this sort. Brokerage houses know this but most of the large brokerage houses won't commit their clients money until after the initial move up. Once the stock has gone up 75%, THEN they will say what a great buy it is, pushing it higher. Wedbush is not one of the big research houses that has all the contacts and resources to check into all the supplier channels, chip foundry prices, etc. Instead, its analyst is probably trying to anticipate the initial move up to make a name for himself. JMHO Obewon

To: Marc who wrote (12416)	5/11/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: Scott Garee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

4- Never understood how a serious brokerage firm could upgrade a stock that is undergoing some transition, inventory ??, acquisition ??, margin ??, capacity, yield, BEFORE at least waiting for some financial report....how could you upgrade a stock based on PC DATA report... that makes NO sense to me. Well, I've always strongly suspected firms upgrade when they want to unload a position and downgrade when they are ready to accumulate. They can always come up with some plausible explanation. ;-)