Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (39935)	5/12/1999 8:44:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

BK TALK (received following from a listserv -- I can't evaluate this stuff. Seems like Bobby Beara's or David Plonk's reading needed here. Comments by others welcome, of course.) My name is Jean Comeau from Quebec, Canada and I am a commodity trading advisor (CTA) registered in Chicago. I have studied the stock market in a technical way for over 25 years and with a detailed technical analysis which follows, I have come to the conclusion that a stock market crash this year (l999) is inevitable. The Dow Jones Industrial average should hit 11550 to 11600 points on an intraday basis and a crash will then be triggerred. Since we are almost there, I took the liberty to write the following as to perhaps help others to make a decision in regards to whether stay in or bail out of the market before the iceberg is finally hit... In order to understand more clearly the main core of the following analysis, I shall begin by refering to pionners in terms of researches in the technical analysis field. ELLIOT (Wave Theory): a market trend usually moves in 5 waves UP and then 3 waves DOWN and so on... FIBONNACCI (Perfect Numbers): .382 and .6l8 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 etc... These numbers play a major role in technical analyses of any sort when it comes to mathematical calculations. W.D. GANN (Square Rule): Time and price (space) meet at a turning point or as in this case the square root of 34 as it will be demonstrated. Now, let us go back in l929 to possibly obtain a better comprehension of the last major WAVES DOWN of the crash that occurred then and realise why the enormous potential for it to repeat is just around the corner. CRASH OF 1929 - 3 waves down October 1929 = High or end of previous major 5 waves up = Dow touches 382 points or Fibonnacci .382 Then, CRASH - Wave 1 = Within 2 months from the high (382), the Dow touches 200 for a total move down of 182 points. CRASH - Wave 2 = Within the following 6 months, the market recovered to 290 or 90 points gain. Here, notice that half of the retracement is made back up from the original 182 points down(wave 1). CRASH - Wave 3 = Finally in June 1932 (after 34 months from the high), the market touches the 43 points level and establish the end of the major bear market. NOTE: For any wave to be confirmed as fitting the picture, the market will usually and normally retrace half of the last move either up or down from the previous major low or high which it actually did in Crash - Wave 2. NOW, ON THE WAY UP... WAVE 1 = 1972 (last quarter) D.J. hits 1051 WAVE 2 = 1974 (last quarter) D.J. hits 577 In this case, the total move down is 474 points or half retracement from 43 (l932 low) to (l972 high) 105l. WAVE 3 = 1987 (August) D.J. hits 2746 (intraday basis) WAVE 4 = 1987 (October) D.J. hits 1616 (intraday basis) In this case, the total move down is 1130 points or half retracement from 1974 low or 577 to high of 2746. WAVE 5 = WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11550 TO 11600 POINTS. END OF MAJOR BULL MARKET, PERIOD. We achieve our goal by using Fibonnacci numbers as follows: Wave 1 or l972 = Fibonnacci number 3 times 339 which is the total down move of the last crash (1929) totals up to 1017 plus 43 (crash low) equals 1060 and the actual high in 1972 was 1051. Wave 3 or 1987 = Fibonnacci number 8 times 339 equals 2712 plus 43 (crash low) equals 2745 and the actual high in 1987 was 2746. Wave 5 or l999 = Fibonnacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43 (crash low) equals 11569. Also note: W.D. Gann Square rule is now in full strength 34 times 340 (square root of 34) = 11560. Note that the number 339 was rounded up to 340. When that number is hit, the 3 waves down will be in an effective mode. We are to expect then that THE MARKET WILL DROP FROM 5500 to 6000 POINTS within the following 2 months (half of retracement of full move from 43 to 11569) which will signal the very next GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and a rendez-vous with destiny and Y2K... There are many more technical analyses that add up to similar results which also reveal the exact same story. At this point, this present exercise seemed to me more realistic for an immediate comprehension of the matter. Ex: Twice 34 (Fibo) years from l932 to 2000 13 (Fibo) years from l974 leads us to l987 (Note: a cycle bottom to top or top to bottom usually repeats twice only when properly measured. 13 (Fibo) years from 1987 leads us to 2000... I sincerely hope that this will help, best regards to all,

To: William H Huebl who wrote (39935)	5/13/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Is inflation dead ?? Used-home prices mostly rising Copyright © 1999 Nando Media, Copyright © 1999 Associated Press By ALICE ANN LOVE WASHINGTON (May 12, 1999 11:27 a.m. EDT nandotimes.com) - Prices of existing homes climbed in most metropolitan areas during the first three months of this year. Nationally, the median resale price - meaning half of homes sold for more and half for less - was $131,600 during the January-March quarter, up 4.6 percent from the same quarter a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. By comparison, inflation rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate during 1998 and has kept to an even lower 1.5 percent rate so far this year.