To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (1143 ) 5/13/1999 12:24:00 PM From: Lane Hall-Witt Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1691
I agree with your emphasis on the volume, which is non-existent. But this light volume is creating an environment where some minor (with an emphasis on minor ) price manipulation can take place. The range is so tight that it obviously isn't a big deal to those of us who are willing to wait it out, but it does have two short-term effects: (1) allowing institutional players to enter the stock and options quietly at a relatively cheap price, and (2) keeping the retail mo-mo players out, at least for now. Institutional buying interest has far outweighed selling interest this morning (by nearly a 4:1 ratio). Not very long ago, 17K shares went through on the bid, doubtless picked up by the same institutional buyer who put in a 17K-share buy message at 34 3/4 before the market opened. It looked to me like the specialist sat on the ask and pushed the price down into that buyer's range, rather than making the buyer come up and meet a higher price. As far as the price action goes: big deal. Quibbling over 1/4s at this point is ridiculous. My interest in these kinds of maneuvers is that I believe a Specialist who helps his buddies get in might also help his buddies get out. That's the rosy scenario. I also have some scenarios in mind that aren't so rosy: in particular, that there's pressure from BKS or its institutional holders to maintain some price stability for the long-term good of the company. That wouldn't be so good for us, as short-term traders, but it would be quite reasonable from the perspective of the company and its long-term investors. The atmosphere on these threads -- especially over at Yahoo! -- gets overly hysterical as longs and shorts wage a war for hearts and minds. That leads to bad investing technique. But I think it's fair to think soberly about the activities of the Specialist, because this is one of the factors we have to consider as we develop our risk-reward profiles for the stock. Which scenario, if any, is true? I don't know. But it's useful to run scenarios that can make us more careful in our investing.