Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (25617)	5/13/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Response to MM's questions: 1) It takes a long time to bring out next-generation carrier-class ATM switches. For example: Cascade took more than 2 years between introducing the BSTDX9000 frame relay switch and the CBX-500, which was far from perfect when first introduced. 18 months later, and after its stock had tanked mightily, it introduced the GX550, which was a monster hit. In 1998, ASND won more than 60% of the carrier contracts available - largely because it had the most recent vintage gear - and it will enjoy a strong revenue flow from the contracts. Now I hear that the follow on to the 550, a 300GB switch is still a mid/late 2000 item. Maybe LU can move its Mx1000 development team over and expedite things, but I wouldn't count on it. Meanwhile, CSCO which hadn't won a damn thing of consequence for 2-3 years with the BPX has this new box the MGX8850 - since it is such a newer vintage, it is denser than the CBX500 and has a lot of bells and whistles, but it has taken 3quarters too long to roll out. It can be upgraded to a 45GBPS switch fabric - when they have it ready. When the upgrade is finally in beta, Cisco can bid it and will likely have a nice win rate, until the next gen ASND box is biddable, and you can also throw in new boxes from NT and NN to the mix. Long story short: When Cisco delivers against the promise of a 45Gbps core, it will have window when it will win some nice contracts. How long that window is depends on when it comes to market and when ASND offers its next gen products. How lucrative will depend on whether NN and NT can get back in the game. 2) I don't really see Cisco as the long-term leader in carrier ATM - a player yes, but not the leader. When push comes to shove, there are alot of influential Ciscoites who are non-believers. 3) I don't think the most likely outcome is that Cisco fails in voice, but it is a plausible outcome. And even in "failure" Cisco will still play in voice, as voice will traverse all networks, including pure IP, where I do not think Cisco can be beaten - to use a sports cliche - competitors can only hope to contain it. Cisco dominates in two areas that will be big growth drivers - core routers and multi-service access devices - if they are only a #2 or 3 in ATM, and a minor player in the huge voice market, Cisco will still be a successful carrier data player. 4) I know I am perceived on this board as being "anti-Cisco" but I really don't think that I am. However, I do have a more cautious outlook than most posters here.