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To: Doug Fowler who wrote (3194)	5/14/1999 8:15:00 AM
From: p.r.	Respond to of 7772

thanks

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (3194)	5/14/1999 9:57:00 AM
From: McNabb Brothers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

So Doug with all that being said could you please tell me where EBAY the stock is going and where would be a good entry point if one was looking to buy! Hank

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (3194)	5/14/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: ShortyBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Thanks for posting the A/C numbers, they are a great service to this thread. I'm confused, you say that you expect growth to slow below 30 percent by the END of this quarter. Yet, if we examine your numbers, the growth DURING this quarter is: 2,128,275 - 1,877,765 (end of Q1) = .251 M percentage is (.251 M / 1.877 M) x 100% = 13.34% per 1/2 quarter If this growth rate continues, one can mathematically project the full quarter's growth as the square of 1.1334, or 29% In other words, the quarterly growth rate is ALREADY below 30%. So I'm confused, why do you predict 40% for this quarter and 30% for NEXT quarter? -- The reason that the precise growth rate seems important is that the mathematics shows that the stock may seriously decline for 30% per quarter growth, but it may hold value or increase for 40% to 50% per quarter (sustained) growth. Perhaps more important is the issue of WHY the growth is falling off (if we knew why, then we can guess whether it will get worse or not). The only relevant news item that I can find is an assertion that the quarter immediately after holidays is when people return their presents, so the fall off is a seasonal thing. Another more dangerous possibility is that pent-up demand (e.g. people that previously used the "misc.forsale" newsgroups is now almost satisfied, and future growth will be limited to market size increases. These increases may be tied to things like how many computers/modems are sold each year, which will grow but not at 40% to 50% per quarter. I like the fact that the company is squeezing out some more profit on small extras, but a cynical person might speculate that extras are what a company focuses on when they can't get any more mileage out of bigger ideas. Milking the extras may cause only a very small one-time increase per extra, not the desired sustained phenomenal growth. Granted, there are a number of untapped extras left, and if the A/C continues to decline, it will be interesting to see how well the company can use extras to fight the decline in A/C growth.

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (3194)	5/28/1999 4:56:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7772

eBay auction count update: Active auctions as of May 28,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,265,843 Active auctions as of May 14,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,128,275 Active auctions as of May 7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,079,027 Active auctions as of April 30,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,041,087 Active auctions as of April 23,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,988,897 Active auctions as of April 9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,914,401 Active auctions as of April 2,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,1,873,394 Active auctions as of March 26,,,,,,,,,,1,877,765 Active auctions as of March 19,,,,,,,,,,1,903,873 Active auctions as of March 12,,,,,,,,,,1,871,314 Active auctions as of March 5,,,,,,,,,,,,1,796,459 Active auctions as of February 19,,,,,,1,591,035 Active auctions as of February 12,,,,,,1,544,149 Active auctions as of January 29,,,,,,,,1,457,406 Active auctions as of January 22,,,,,,,,1,378,705 Active auctions as of January 15,,,,,,,,1,308,663 Active auctions as of January 8,,,,,,,,,,1,281,084 Active auctions as of January 1,,,,,,,,,,1,208,832 Active auctions as of December 18,,,,,,,871,225 Active auctions as of December 11,,,,1,032,073 Active auctions as of December 4,,,,,,1,125,353 Active auctions as of November 27,,,,,,,998,481 Active auctions as of November 20,,,,,,,980,435 Actuve auctions as of November 13,,,,,,942,949 Active auctions as of November 6,,,,,,,,,901,626 Active auctions as of October 30,,,,,,,,,,861,802 Active auctions as of October 23,,,,,,,,,,832,486 Active auctions as of October 9 ,,,,,,,,,,,794,279 Active auctions as of October 2 ,,,,,,,,,,,762,731 Active auctions as of September 25,,,,,,722,745 Active auctions as of September 18,,,,,,708,964 Active auctions as of September 11,,,,,,687,649 Active auctions as of September 4,,,,,,,,645,491 Active auctions as of August 28, 1998: 649,169 Active auctions as of August 21, 1998: 625,810 Active auctions as of August 14, 1998: 612,893 Growth from 13 weeks (one quarter) ago: 33.8 percent Notes: Since I did not record an auction count for 13 weeks ago, I used the average of 12 weeks ago and 14 weeks ago. Also, eBay had a big jump in auction counts in the last 24 hours. I believe this is primarily the result of the big eBay outage one week ago, where the site was down for most of the day. I suspect many people waited for a week to post auctions they intended to post on that day. Interesting that eBay gained more in one day than the total number of auctions running on Amazon.