To: Think4Yourself who wrote (44745 ) 5/14/1999 11:52:00 AM From: Think4Yourself Respond to of 95453
For those expecting OPEC to cheat... Indonesia Says Oil Income Surged as Supply Cuts Kicked In, Prices Rose Singapore, May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, the only Asian member of the 11-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said it will stick with an OPEC pledge to cut oil output because its income soared as prices rose. ''The price rise has exceeded our expectations. We will continue with the oil supply cuts because it's obviously benefiting us,'' said Iin Arifin Takhyan, director of exploration and production at the Ministry of Mines and Energy. Indonesia's benchmark Minas crude has risen as much as 84 percent since touching a 10-year low of $9.59 a barrel in December last year. Benchmark Brent crude oil closed at $16.10 a barrel yesterday in London, up 3.2 percent. Higher oil prices give Indonesia's economy, now in its worst recession in 30 years, a welcome windfall. The extra cash could help trim its budget deficit, which stood at 500 billion rupiah ($64 million) in April 1999. More cash from oil would also lessen dependence on foreign aid, needed to help Indonesia pay off nearly $60 billion in U.S. dollar debt. In estimating income from crude oil in its budget for this year, Indonesia set a price of $10.50 a barrel. With prices 60 percent higher at about $17 a barrel, the country could receive $7.4 billion a year from oil, compared with the budgeted amount of $4.9 billion. That assumes prices stay at $17 a barrel. ''We only need for prices to reach $11 a barrel to meet our budget. Now it is way above that level,'' said Iin. Essentials The influx of oil money may also help the government fund subsidies for essential goods in the country as millions of Indonesians teeter on the poverty line, defined as living on less than $1 a day. ''The increase in oil revenue gives the government more flexibility in continuing their social programs,'' said Tan Min Lan, regional economist at Merrill Lynch Singapore Pte. The programs include oil and food subsidies to keep prices of essentials low. She said the extra income helped deflect the government's need to raise taxes to boost revenue. Indonesia, though, does not want oil to rise above $18 a barrel as it could depress demand. Iin said Indonesia sells about 70 percent of its crude oil to Japan, which is suffering its worst recession since World War II. PT Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, said this week it will pump 1.187 million barrels a day, or seven percent less than a year ago, in May and June. This meets its latest pledge to cut output. Oil producers agreed late March to cut global oil supply by 2.1 million barrels, or 2.7 percent. The cuts aim to end a glut which pushed prices to a 12-year low of $9.55 a barrel in December. Prices have since risen as much as 79 percent and oil producers seem determined to keep a lid on supply. OPEC said yesterday its members made 82 percent of the oil output cuts in April, up from 73 percent in March.