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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (8445)	5/14/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

FEATURE - Butter outweighs guns in Armenian vote 10:06 p.m. May 08, 1999 Eastern By Lawrence Sheets YEREVAN, May 9 (Reuters) - Poverty has overtaken conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan as the top issue in Armenia's May 30 parliamentary election, but a bigger battle looms to convince voters in the tiny former Soviet republic that the contest will be fair. Irregularities and fraud cited by foreign election observers cast doubt over the results of presidential contests in 1996 and 1998 as well as the last parliamentary election in 1995. It is a record which the government of President Robert Kocharyan must correct if it wants to overcome voter cynicism and fears of further vote falsification. ''Kocharyan thinks this time the elections must be better. He doesn't want his fingers burnt again, as past elections have been used as a stick against Armenia,'' said Jakob Avetikian, editor-in-chief of the popular daily newspaper Azg (Nation). Scepticism about the vote is pervasive both on the streets and among political pundits. ''Unfortunately even if you have a sparkling election which is completely free and fair, many people will not believe it because of what has happened in the past,'' said one Western diplomat in the capital Yerevan. ''Most of the population doesn't have much hope for fair elections after what happened in 1995, 1996 and 1998. There is complete indifference and apathy,'' said former prime minister Vazgen Manukyan, whose National Democratic Union (NDU) is one of five main parties and blocs competing. NEW ALLIANCE HOPES FOR MAJORITY Of five main forces contesting the election, only the newly formed Neasnutiun (Unity) bloc joining the People's Party of Karen Demirchyan, Armenia's former Soviet Communist chief, and the Republican Movement of Defence Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, is seen as having a chance of winning an outright majority. Observers see the alliance as a marriage of convenience between Demirchyan, a charismatic politician with many emotional backers but lacking a grass-roots political operation, and Sargsyan, whose grip on the military gives him a strong organisational base. ''Neasnutiun might hit 60 percent,'' said Avetikian. The new parliament will serve for five years, with 56 members being chosen on a party list basis and 75 in first-past-the post constituencies across the Caucasus country of 3.8 million. Some observers doubt Neasnutiun can win a majority but most think it will be the biggest bloc in parliament. Also expected to make a strong showing include the Communist Party led by Sergei Badalyan, an orthodox, pro-Moscow group whose popularity has grown in recent years as living standards failed to improve. The nationalist Dashnaktsitiun party, Manukyan's centre-right NDU and the centrist Armenian National Movement of former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan are also expected to clear the five percent hurdle for party-list representation. TOP ISSUE NO LONGER WAR Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been the defining issue in national politics since it began in 1988, when both were still republics in the now-defunct Soviet Union. Viewed within the context of Armenians' sense of their tragic history, Karabakh came to be seen as a matter of national survival, overriding most other concerns even as the country struggled in the throes of economic deprivation in the wake of independence. But the war has been in a state of deep freeze since 1994. A shaky truce has generally held, with ethnic Armenians from Karabakh still holding most of the region and a big strip of Azeri land around it. There has been little progress towards a political settlement. ''The situation on the front is quiet, maybe too quiet, and therefore people have turned their attention to social and economic problems,'' Tigran Naghdalyan, executive director of Armenian Television, told Reuters. ARMENIAN VOTERS TIRED OF POVERTY The economy has recovered significantly since the legendary winter of 1992-93, when electricity was rationed to 30 minutes a day and the government warned that the most vulnerable sections of the population faced hunger. But the exclusive new boutiques and car dealerships which have sprung up in the capital cater to a tiny privileged minority and most people struggle to get by. Officially, average wages are just $40 a month. Real unemployment is high, and most of the big industrial plants which once powered Armenia's economy in Soviet days are idle. ''People are sick of talk and theory. They want leaders who can produce real things, make their lives tangibly better,'' said Khachatour Sukiasyan, one of Armenia's top businessman who is running for a parliamentary seat. Adapting to survive means that agriculture, much of it subsistence, now accounts for 35 percent of the national economy, compared to just 12 percent under communism. ''Look, I was an engineer then. Now the only way I can feed myself is to grow vegetables in my garden,'' said Levan, a bearded old man with a hoe swung over his shoulder as he walked along a road in the northern city of Spitak. Armenia's economic plight is such that Spitak has still not been completely rebuilt since a powerful earthquake 11 years ago and many of the quake victims still live in temporary housing. ''The election -- forget about it. They just choose who they want. It doesn't make any point to vote,'' Levan said, echoing a popular refrain. Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.