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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (5163)	5/15/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc, re: "By the way if Bob eventually goes to a sell signal I still expect to hear it leaked and announced on CNBC a couple of days before I get it in the mail since I seem to be getting it later than most." MARKET REACTION TO SELL SIGNAL/STRATEGY FOR SELLING OUT-- Any thread thoughts on the severity of the market reaction (if any) to Bob's sell signal? If we may say that those who react will primarily be individual investors who will not all be able to react at the same time, perhaps the reaction will be spread out over several days, and will be lost in the noise. If so, a later notification to some might not be much of a disadvantage. On the other hand, we've all seen what can happen to the market when Ralphie "flip-flop" opens his mouth, and it's not impossible that Bob's sell signal could have a similar, quick effect. In such a case, those who receive later notification will be at some disadvantage unless a bounce creates a selling opportunity. Anyone here who would honor a sell signal from Bob, but perhaps not do so immediately in anticipation of a better selling opportunity? What if you learn that three days earlier Bob said "you can't afford to be in the market for even one more day", and the market is already down about 10% in those three days, would you still likely sell immediately?

To: marc ultra who wrote (5163)	5/15/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc, another comment re: ". . .if Bob eventually goes to a sell signal I still expect to hear it leaked and announced on CNBC. . . " It still is possible that CNBC won't cover this sell signal, or if they do, they might not give it much air time. Since Bob has not gone on CNBC and is not a member of this crowd, they might choose not to mention his name on the air, unless his sell signal is already perceived to have had an effect on the market. Bob has done his subscribers a favor by refusing to become a CNBC-type talking head. But I believe word of a sell signal would spread on the internet and probably make it to this thread in one form or another pretty quickly, whether we like it or not.

To: marc ultra who wrote (5163)	5/15/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

From Lady Elaine's site. What I noted was CIBCR inflation index has been rising something that Greenspan and I believe Bob's model looks at closely garzarelli.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (5163)	5/18/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 15132

market musings.Looks like without some more correction here we may be setting the table for the end of the bull market. Sentiment indicators have become a little less bullish suggesting we might be able to go up or bounce around for a while here. If the economy doesn't slow on its own here it looks like the Fed will try to slow money growth through their operations and with a rate hike down the road if needed. We've been talking about a goldilocks economy with moderate growth and no inflation. As growth has continued above trend we felt as long as inflation stays non-existent or falling the Fed can look the other way from tight labor markets and potential inflation. Meanwhile any monetarists on the Fed have been whining about excessive money growth and have fortunately been ignored as the economy continued to look ideal and without inflation. Things may truly be changing now. We had a GDP deflator that while very low increased significantly from the prior quarter. And then the real shock to nirvana was the CPI which showed some broad based price increases. We'll have to see if this was a one time fluke but the direction of inflation seems likely to have changed. While inflation is no longer declining if not robustly growing, in the rest of the world we seem to be losing the fear by the Fed of tanking emerging markets with a tighter policy. The problem is if you look at the factors that cause a bear market at least as outlined by Bob they mostly seem to all come at you together. Rapid growth and high inflation leads to tight money and rising rates.As to the one that might be separate, overvaluation, I think we can all agree that the market is very richly valued particularly at our current long bond yield. This all leaves me in a very cautious position with an unusually high cash position but not pulling the plug yet. For that I'll wait for Bob and/or keep an eye on interest rates and see if we get a little rally and push sentiment to a very extreme level Marc