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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (14095)	5/16/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Stephan, >>>> the one aspect that disturbs me more than anything else is the extent to which the analyst community is fueling this 'irrational exhuberance'. It really is a disgrace that such a self-serving system should get to this level. <<<<<< If you have seen previous posts of mine, I am extremely cynical towards analysts. I forgot which thread I read it on, but if I am quoting it correctly it mentioned that only 1% of all the recommendations have been sells. seeya

To: Stephen who wrote (14095)	5/16/1999 9:46:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Whilst I understand that everyone is focused on the FOMC meeting and the outcome of any rate change or bias .... other than a relief rally lasting a day and a half, does anyone really think the market will continue up even if there isn't a change???. Isn't it almost usual for the market to worry about something that hasn't happened rather than something that has ??. It seems to me that the likely scenario is that whatever short term effect the meeting results in, the immediate effect thereafter is just as likely to be the reverse. If the fed raises rates, in retrospect everyone is likely to think that they've nipped any chance of inflation in the bud, and that this overpriced market can live with a mere .25% change so why not buy. Conversely, if they do nothing, won't investors believe that the rate change is inevitable and therefore it would be time to take money off the table .... ??. Just a thought ... but I would appreciate comments. I realise the effect of high interest rates on stocks, both from a feasible alternative investment vehicle and from a leverage cost for the high multiple growth stocks .... but historically rates would still be low (even if there are some outrageous P/E's). TIA Stephen