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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meathead who wrote (125186)	5/16/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Meathead, I think Niles and Kumar are without any inside information leaks from DELL this quarter. Kurt King stated that details on ASP, Units sold, etc. were not available this quarter from DELL so that there is a lot of uncertainty in the numbers the analysts are using for their forecasts. I reviewed a lot of the analysts' reports and they were all over the place with their various assessments of Y2K lockdown, ASP decline, Margin decline, Units sold, etc. They do not seem to have a clue. Some of the analysts seemed angry about their inability to get inside information this quarter. Last quarter the revenue shortfall was leaked to Niles- I think. However, I believe that the person responsible for this leak was fired or at least muzzled. DELL management has told the analysts recently to not change their forecasts. However, the forecasts range from 5.4 B to 5.9 B in revenue and EPS of 15 to 18 cents. In other words, DELL has told the analysts not to expect inside information from DELL. Now CPQ was giving these analysts inside information for the last year at least. The only problem is in the recent quarter that information was totally bogus and led to a gross underestimation of the vitality of the PC sector. Niles used this information along with the Y2K lockdown hoax to proclaim the end of the PC. It is small wonder that he is hunkering down now. <VBG> Kumar tried to curry favor recently from DELL with his announcement that "the magic is back" but that did not produce any inside information either. So a couple of weeks later Kumar says that DELL's improved results are merely due to CPQ's stumble and will not be repeated next quarter. Sounds like sour grapes to me! The most important issue for DELL is revenue growth and EPS growth. Management has considerable control over these fundamentals. After the volatility averages out, DELL's stock price will be determined by their fundamental revenue and earnings performance. I am really glad to see DELL enforcing discipline in the release of guidance to the analysts. I trust that the quarterly report released on Tuesday will be robust. This will serve to discipline the analyst community to play by equitable rules with DELL. This shows the company is paying attention to Wall Street, and sending a healthy signal to the entire investment community. Kurt King - Montgomery securities- has stated that DELL has been very "tight lipped" since last quarter's leak to Niles. So the Niles call is considered to be an inside leak. Regards, Jim Kelley