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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (8704)	5/17/1999 1:31:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

Colin Powell Criticizes NATO news.bbc.co.uk

To: Neocon who wrote (8704)	5/17/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

I really think that the Russian East will go its own way, possibly as multiple states. Very likely true, but it cannot be denied that the Russians face a serious paradox. It goes something like this: Systemic change is essential. Systemic change will inevitably cause serious disorder; those who are on top of the pile now are not going to disappear without a fight. Serious disorder is widely regarded as intolerable because it could lead to the ascension of a really dangerous government: in this case a demagogue promising to "make Russia great again". Therefore the systemic changes necessary for progress cannot be allowed to happen, because the process required to make them poses unacceptable risks. And the tension builds. I have seen this paradox emerge before, mainly in small developing countries with little influence, and no satisfactory solution has emerged. The usual response is to attempt an appearance of change while allowing those obstructing change to continue sucking at the teat. This seems unlikely to result in any positive outcome in Russia. I am not optimistic.