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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (3207)	5/17/1999 1:49:00 AM
From: RSIVA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Where are you getting these numbers, proving 25% increase in auctions.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (3207)	5/17/1999 4:11:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7772

William: Actually, the eBay auction count was at about 1.9M when Amazon entered the fray in late March/early April. eBay auction counts were at 1.7M back in late February. In fact, eBay auction count has struggled to achieve 11 percent growth in the two months, which is a lot less than the 25 percent in a month figure you stated. (I have been tracking eBay auction counts on a weekly basis since August, and they are posted on Fridays on this thread.) Here is a link for your reference: exchange2000.com eBay auction count growth has seriously diminished over the last 6 weeks. In fact, while auction count growth was 68 percent in Q1 over the Christmas quarter, growth will be SUBSTANTIALLY less this quarter. I would attribute Amazon as hindering eBay growth by about 2 to at most 3 percent. Amazon is flailing about in the online auction market. Their auction count is no greater now than it was when they launched 6 weeks ago. (This is determined by empirical methods (since Amazon does not publish a total), such as searching for popular keywords, and keeping track of the number of auctions in which they show up. I have been doing this since early April, and I estimate that Amazon has 50K to 60K auctions ongoing compared to a little more than 2 million for eBay.) eBay is the winner in this market. Amazon is toast and Yahoo is a joke. However, there is a big question regarding growth for eBay going forward. While eBay has a ton of serious sellers, it needs to find a way to attract a lot more of them. Assuming 30 percent after tax margins, and an eventual 50 percent annual growth rate, eBay needs about 20M ongoing auctions per week to eventually support its current stock price. Two months ago, I would have said that was achievable in 2 to 3 years. With the recent slowdown, it could take a LOT longer. Check out Paul Allen's new venture, Mercata -- tremendous potential. --Doug