Baku Alleges Moscow Brokered Chinese Missile Sale to Armenia
Summary:
On May 18, Azerbaijan registered an official protest with
Beijing, claiming that China sold Armenia eight Typhoon missiles
in a deal brokered by Moscow. Recent military cooperation among
Moscow, Beijing, and Armenia reveals that the CIS strategic
alliance has been dramatically redrawn. This development could
result in an intensification of already existing regional
conflicts between the former member countries of the Soviet
empire.
Analysis:
On May 18, Azerbaijan registered an official protest with
Beijing, claiming that China sold eight Typhoon missiles (with a
range of 37 miles) to Armenia. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Tofig Zulfugarov further claimed that the weapons were sold to
Armenia by an unnamed joint Sino-Russian company following a
joint visit by Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev and
Armenian Defense Minister Vargen Sarkisyan to China. Azerbaijani
authorities said that there are two possible explanations for how
this deal took place: either the Chinese government has no
control over heavy arms sales or Beijing is violating UN Security
Council resolutions, which prohibit the sale of arms to conflict
zones. In its response to Azerbaijan's allegations, the Chinese
embassy in Azerbaijan said that it had no information regarding
any Chinese arms deliveries to Armenia.
The issue was also brought up at a meeting of the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) Council of Defense Ministers, which is
currently taking place in Armenia's capital, Yerevan. At the
meeting, Armenian Defense Minister Vazgen Sarikisian denied
Azerbaijan's allegation, saying it was "nonsense." Azerbaijan,
which had made it clear earlier that it did not plan to extend
its membership in the CIS Collective Security Treaty, is not
participating in the meeting. Azerbaijan's Foreign Policy
Adviser Vafa Guluzade said that his country would not participate
given that the meeting was being held on Armenian territory.
According to Guluzade, Russia has intentionally strengthened the
CIS's security ties with Armenia, thereby alienating Azerbaijan.
According to an Azerbaijani spokesman, further evidence of
Russian intentions may be found in their selection of the site
for the CIS security meeting.
If, in fact, the China-Armenia arms deal was brokered by Moscow,
it would highlight the dramatic shifts taking place within the
CIS, and the degree of hostility that they have fueled. Earlier
this year, three out of the nine original signatories of the 1992
CIS Collective Security Treaty -- Georgia, Uzbekistan, and
Azerbaijan -- made it clear that they did not intend to continue
as members in the alliance. The three former Soviet republics
said they were dissatisfied with Moscow's dominant position and
its policies toward the CIS. On May 20, only six CIS countries -
- Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Tajikistan confirmed their readiness to extend their membership
in the alliance. The original treaty will expire this month.
Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have already joined in a
security alliance with Ukraine and Moldova, two CIS members that
never joined the Security Treaty in the first place. That
alliance operates under the auspices of NATO's Partnership for
Peace program.
In addition to the defections from the CIS, there are other
indications that the alliance is crumbling. According to
Guluzade, Russia had to deal repeatedly with Kazakhstan and
Belarus's unwillingness at past CIS security council meetings to
assist Russia with its military commitments in Tajikistan and
Georgia. To counterbalance these tendencies that threaten to
tear the CIS security alliance apart, Moscow is now openly
reinforcing its politico-military ties with those CIS members
that are still prepared to follow its lead. And as NATO becomes
a central issue in the CIS division, Russia's confrontational
behavior can only be expected to intensify.
On May 21, NATO announced that it was considering Georgia as a
possible candidate for associate membership in the alliance. This
undoubtedly would encourage Azerbaijan, a country that had
previously asked NATO to station its forces on its territory, to
seek closer cooperation with the Western alliance. Russia is now
playing an old game among the former Soviet republics: divide
and, if not conquer, then at least develop a pivotal influence.
By openly reinforcing its alliance with Armenia through the
brokering of missile sales, Russia is seeking to reestablish its
influence in the region. By pursuing relations with Azerbaijan
and Georgia, NATO is doing the same. As tension escalates
between Yerevan and Baku, Moscow and Brussels may find the
seriousness of their commitment to their proxies put to the test.
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