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To: NickSE who wrote (41450)	5/17/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

PEI latest... pei-intl.com <<Those that expect some message from God that will provide ample warning that the high is in place have never studied the history of markets. Those who think that as long as the fundamentals remain sound, then there is no risk of a stock market crash have also not read their history. In our special report we have addressed these issues in detail. In the limited space provided here, it is sufficient to state that at the peak in 1929, car sales were at record highs as was the case with corporate earnings. Mutual fund cash levels also stood at a record high in August of 1929. When the crash began, General Motors fell by 75% within less than 6 weeks while earnings and sales stood at record highs. The media came out stating emphatically that NOTHING had changed and that there was NO SANE REASON to sell stocks! The press simply chalked it up to insane people who sold in a panic without reason. At best, the only fundamental that one could point to was a rise in interest rates by Britain. So much cash had left Europe and poured into the US, that severe shortages of cash were developing outside the US economy – particularly in Europe. The rise in rates in Britain was viewed by some as bearish for the US because it would force foreign investors to sell and go home. We have not quite reached that level of international capital concentration in the US, but we may still face that between now and 2003 and in the process, such a trend would cause the Dow Jones Industrials to rise to touch the face of the Wall Street gods somewhere around 19,000-20,000. This depends entirely upon the fate of the dollar.>>

To: NickSE who wrote (41450)	5/17/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 86076

Otherwise I hold my EasyAl voodoo doll over the fire. :o) Won't do any good. I already did that a half year ago and it dropped into the fire and burned up. Next week came the surprise quarter point hike. -g-

To: NickSE who wrote (41450)	5/18/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

4 bearish opinions on wallstreetcity.com and only 1 bullish..uhhhoooo FROM THE BULLS: "I think in the long term, long-term investors are going to win out buying the stock market here," says ARTHUR HOGAN of JEFFERIES. (CNBC "Market Wrap", 5/17) FROM THE BEARS: "I think the days are numbered for the bull market," says ED YARDENI of DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES. "I think sometime between now and year end, a combination of Y2K, interest rates where they are today, maybe a little bit higher in the next few weeks, and deflationary pressures may very well force investors to rethink their earnings expectations, bringing them down. And that, I think, could bring the market down 30 percent." (CNN "Moneyline", 5/17) "I think bit by bit, sector by sector, the market probably is beginning to move into a late spring correction and I still think it might take the averages like the Dow and the S&P down 10 or maybe 15 percent from their highs," says RICHARD McCABE at MERRILL LYNCH. He does think the market "will be in good shape" in the second half after getting through "a moderate further correction." (CNBC "Market Wrap", 5/17) "These are fairly dangerous times," says ERIC BARDEN of FIRST AUSTIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT."[Higher interest rates] will cause a derailment from the bull market we have enjoyed since 1990." ("USA Today", 5/17) JOHN ROQUE of ARNHOLD AND S. BLEICHROEDER is looking for a correction that "is probably going to be short-lived, but enough to pay attention to." (CNBC "Street Signs", 5/17) FORECASTS AND PREDICTIONS: "There's probably not a telecom deal that one would think is unthinkable right now," says KIM WALLACE of LEHMAN BROTHERS. (PBS "Nightly Business Report", 5/