To: ISOMAN who wrote (36391 ) 5/18/1999 3:01:00 PM From: wonk Respond to of 43774
Until financials, it's anyones guess True up to a point iso - however, there are professionals concerned with this sort of thing; trained to analyze either what companies should do or what they are doing. If they have some credentials, they're respectfully considered as financial analysts. A couple a quick points: You should clarify that 2 would be construed as an offering to the public and hence would be different than 4. Point 2 would be limited in how much cash could be raised. Point 5 is incorrect, revenue is just how much you take in and doesn't tell one much - you have to know the net. Operating losses require cash, they don't generate it. You should say positive EBITDA or positive cash flow. I think that Colleen expressed succinctly how unlikely it is that significant - let alone - positive cash flow is being generated. Item three certainly is possible, and the least damaging to the share structure if a straight loan. Yet, more than likely a lender (even if it is an insider) would prudently demand a high rate of interest and a significant equity kicker to compensate for the risk. If the interest was deferred add more to the kicker. Harkening back to finance 101 one can postulate the effects on the share structure, if the company was to choose option 2 or 4. Given the fact that this is OTC-BB, given that the shares would be locked up and thus have no liquidity, given the amount of shares sold would likely not represent a control position, given the endemic business risk of a relatively new endeavor, and given that the new shares dilute the capital structure, it would not be unfair to estimate that new shares could only be sold at least a 75% discount to the market price and in fact, you see this discount all the time. (The lack of reporting historically inflates the market value of micro-cap stocks over and above their "intrinsic" value since the general public does not have access to all the relevant facts. However, participants in a PP have more accurate and current data and hence demand sizeable discounts.) Now in the case of PABN, to keep the math simple, using a average market share price of 10 cents, it would have to issue 40 million new shares just to raise a million before flotation cost. However, given the fact that the price rise in the stock price is relatively recent (it floated in the 2- 3 cent range for what, 6-8 months) one would expect that a PP would be priced at some average of the prior months market price. If one took average closing price over the past 60 days then you would be looking at an average share price around 3-4 cents which would mean the company would have to issue something on the order of 114 million shares to raise a million - before flotation costs. The numbers get very ugly, very fast. ww