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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (12708)	5/18/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: joel3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Dumb question... Immediately after the conference call, does the management continue to address questions from analysts privately or does everyone just go home? Can I assume that a lot of questions were built up during the quiet period and the analysts are eager to ask questions privately? My take on today's action (for discussion purposes)... The earnings report was no surprise. TDFX was hurt by DIMD and CREAF refusal to fill demand of Banshee and Voodoo2. STBI was hurt by the sudden loss of OEM sales of TNT. Furthermore, we already knew that Voodoo3 had a very successful launch. I believe that the stock price already reflects these events. The two key issues going forward are the quality of the Voodoo3 OEM deals and the ability for 3dfx to revolutionize the graphics market with Voodoo4 (Rampage). Today, we heard again that 3dfx will be announcing OEM deals in the next few weeks. Given the excessive retail demand, I am expecting the OEM deals to be nice. However, I remain suspicious until I see the details. In the past, 3dfx has exaggerated the upside (a la Banshee). I do not believe that today's stock price includes quality OEM deals. So if investors have faith in 3dfx's management to deliver OEM deals, they are buyers. Finally, we did not learn anything about Voodoo4 today (or last week). 3dfx appears to be extremely frightened about having an adverse effect on their current sales. In fact, since Voodoo3 3500 TV does not ship until mid-July, it will probably not be announced until August. Personally, I do not agree with this strategy. Keeping the entire graphics community excited about 3dfx's products is important to their long-term future. In any case, shareholders will be forced to trust 3dfx's management. In summary, the uneventful earning report (no downside news) and the reiteration of OEM deals to be announced will support the stock. Joel