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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (14361)	5/19/1999 1:41:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

SO: I read all post on this thread, and that includes yours...<g> See my reply to you. I have a chart on the MDA Web Site that combines the NYA-COMPX Composite chart, the TYX and the XAU. I was displaying it back to 74, but I think I zoomed in to 87 forward now. Of course the chart is semi-log to keep the era comparisons in proper perspective. Regards, LG

To: StockOperator who wrote (14361)	5/19/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

SO. It is so unlike you to be so bearish. Part of the reason I read this thread is to gauge sentiment as much as profit from analysis. This and your last posts are both very sobering. Would you expect a sudden drop, as in Oct '87, rather than a more drawn out correction as we saw Aug-Oct 98? And are we talking about 25%, as we saw in Oct '87, or considerably more? And would continued higher interest rates be the trigger, or something else? This change in opinion indicates to me a truly open mind. I must also give Donald credit in this regard, even though his bias may be bearish. He makes a real effort to balance his viewpoint. Rob

To: StockOperator who wrote (14361)	5/20/1999 1:05:00 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

It is interesting to note the roller coaster ride that we've been on the past couple of weeks. Many of us have gone from bullish to bearish to everything in between. But I think if you consider for a second where we are in terms of resolving these longer term consolidating patterns. And how the markets often like to shake things out just prior to breaking out. The calls have indeed been very timely. Personally, I think this thread during this volatile time period has done its best work. You only have to look at a weekly chart of the DOW to realize how fast this latest trend reversal hit us. All this from a bunch of hacks sitting in their underwear <gg>. Just kidding. The question now is where to we go from here. One of the indicators that I have been watching carefully here is the VIX. Although the weekly chart has been testing a key resistance area, the pattern developed is one that potentially pointed to a breakout in prices. Prices today however broke down hitting a new low for the week which may imply that we have had a successful test of that area. We still need to get below 25.96 to break last week's low - something to keep an eye on. The RUT today appears to be breaking out once again after a short give back last week. The utilities are also continuing to build on a huge move that actually began last month. The NAZ is edging into a place where as soon as next week prices should be challenging a very key area. Another "do or die" position. On top of that many of the internet stocks that I follow are now beginning to rumble once again. And when you consider that many of them are doing so after prices have consolidated for many months it's very easy to get excited again. However, we are still not living in a perfect world. The transports mainly on the heels of the airlines are under significant pressure, today being a very ugly day overall. So it would be nice to see some sort of turnaround here. So what we need here is for prices to continue to stabilize with that upward bias that many have been calling for. The VIX, trannies and option expiration should also make the rest of the week an interesting one. Good luck trading. SO