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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Piranha who wrote (12849)	5/20/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

>> Three "major" OEM deals plus retail could swing 500k units/month, couldn't it? May be. It depends on what percentage of revenue is suppose to come from the OEMs, whether the cards are standard on the OEM boxes or options, and if 3dfx can maintain enough enthusiasm for the public to ask the OEMs for 3dfx cards. The PC shipment estimates that I've heard for this year are a bit over 100 million units, of which 40% are expected to be home PCs. The most optimistic forecast of long term penetration OEMs that I've heard of are about 20%. This being 3dfx's first year with OEMs, I'd say they probably won't have better than ~6% penetration. So that means about 2.4 million units to be shipped to OEMs and the rest to come from retail. Obviously the OEM prices will be lower than the retail. So add these numbers into your expectations for the revenues. Sun Tzu