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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: add who wrote (11278)	5/20/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

add; You have been following this company for much longer than I have. Your guess is probably better than mine about developments within or about the company. Certainly, worth consideration. May I venture another guess? I has been my experience that the MMs often have the info before it happens though, not always. If they continue to behave as though, they're are in a holding pattern then they will maintain the narrow trading band which is what they are now doing. If I see the stock shoot up on a 400,000-600,000 share day, with no news, then I'm out and waiting for the drop, which usually comes the next day. It's certainly not foolproof but its a good bet. The key indicator here is volume. When they cover it is usually a 200,000-250,000 share day. No one but they, themselves know where the top is but their patterns produce some guidelines. Suppose I miss the boat? Well, its happened before. My accountant has always said, "You can't complain about a profit". It is just my a point of view. We'll all see how this plays out. Bill

To: add who wrote (11278)	5/20/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Add: Ohhh, but we DO know where the top and bottom is(more or less) at this point in time, no? Just take a look at any chart, starting from ~January of this year through right now. VLNC is firmly locked in fairly predictable rut. And I think we can tell just about how long this rut's going to last, too. How long? Well, let's look at the one document that's proven to be unfailingly(is this a word? Heh) accurate. The SEC filings(a groan goes up from the group). Management has stated in their filing that, barring any unforeseen nastiness, the N.I. lines will be ready to go(my words) come the end of their fiscal year 2000 1st quarter. In other words, the end of this June. Let's think about this for a second. End of June. Mooter, et.al., have stated they've seen the N.I. plant, that this plant has been producing product, and that this product is being stored. Assuming this has been going on for approximately one month, and given that the quarantine parameters require.....what....~90 days?? Then end of June "jives" with their filing statement(s). To me everything SCREAM'S an early July time-frame. Of course, I could be wrong. To Mooter, et.al., while touring the plant did you discuss "perk" charts with Lev? That is, I'd expect he's got commercialization process mapped out right down to the week, if not day, by which point he expects to be commercially "on line". Was this subject broached? But I'll admit, this is all a wild ass guess of mine that stems from waaaay back in December when it became clear we were then looking at another 6 months(welll....clear to me anyway, remember my comment Fred? Heh). So after watching the first cycle I decided to play, and it's been profitable to the ~percentages stated by William. Hey, profit is profit. But I see these cycles also fulfilling a mission, based on my observations of the money flow. It tapers off when VLNC get's into the $8 range, and picks up drastically when it gets down around ~$6.75 to $7. Sidebar comment...hey Rich, remember my private "theory" on this? Heh. Anyway, it appears sumbody be wanting VLNC, but they're disciplined in their approach. "They" appear to want their cost basis to remain ~$7 or so, and so the money flow accelerates when it's down around that point(positive pressure increases), and it decelerates when ~$8 is reached. Can we say yo-yo, or the more popular term(to me anyway), bouncy bouncy?? ;-) Longer term it appears sumbody knows VLNC will do well. But I'll admit, that although I still hold with my aforementioned time-frames I wouldn't be at all unhappy to have management come out with something sooner(tomorrow would be nice, heh), but while VLNC be rut bound let the logic of the bouncy bouncy rule such trader blocks as you care to play with. Psssst.....one caveat.....all of the above is merely my opinion. Now......about those p.o.'s. ;-) John~