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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (60217)	5/21/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter Bug, I must say that it was a very well-thought out post. Now, I do think that you are wrong about the future monetary and credit scenario as well as investor psychology, that that's only my opinion against yours. We'll see. -BGR.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (60217)	5/21/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: Fred B.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter, First, monetary growth can continue as long as there is no threat of inflation.. You see, monetary growth is only one part of the equation. The other part is productivity. Your entire post is a very valid argument for the slow down of the bull market but not a reversal. I will be the first to tell you that the days of %30 annual returns on the indices are over( unless even I underestimate the demand). The demand, due to demographics, and the liquidity is simply way too strong now. With respect to the fear factor, I see it as being a lot less than 1987, for example. This market has created a circle( if I was a bear , I would have called it a vicious circle!) severe rises after corrections. That is ingrained in people's psychology. It is going to take a major catalyst to break that circle. I just don't see any such catalyst in the near to mid-term future. If the circle was to be broken, we would have seen it with the near collapse of Brazil on the top of Asia and Russia last October. With Asia slowly coming back and Brazil on solid ground now, I simply don't see it in the near future. What is going on now, is that money is migrating within the market with new money being poured in constantly. That is why you see the high PE stocks taking a breather now while everyone else catches up. Also I , as well as many other bulls, gladly short any company with %5 earnings growth and a 200 PE!! Fred P.s. Thank you. Unfortunately where I am going, there are no sights!!! Forget the sights, there isn't even a bottle of scotch!! Oh well. See you all in about a month. Maybe DOW will be at 5000 then and everyone on this thread will be overjoyed!!