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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (14740)	5/24/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

FredE: Sorry, you missed the chat session. I think one per week would be too much. Anyway, after another insult tonight...(this one was the straw that broke the camel's back)...I am considering shutting down the Web Site and I may stop posting on SI. I just don't need the grief. It just stopped being fun! Back to making money in private... Regards, LG

To: Stoctrash who wrote (14740)	5/24/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Fred; RE > I wish I had a solid opinion either way, but too much of a mixed bag here, IMO. I like to see this in a person, ( the no solid opinion part ), I get that way a lot, and think it's a saving grace . Sometimes signals are mixed as the market sit's on a pivot point, and I sit things out. While I see a spike early this morning due to the futures , I'm not sure it will follow through, I do think we may get a few up days but I'm a long way from confident about taht. ------------------ Longer term I see the market with a liquid problem that needs fixing, and I think foreign money has been easing out of our Blue Chips. ( the dollar is up enough YTD that they are getting a 5%-6% bonus when they cash in stocks ) this is the backlash of Creemspams rate cuts last year. ------------------- It's a global market for the most part, ( small caps excepted ) and foreigners don't see our stocks the same way we do. When rates were cut last year the dollar fell, and while we watched our market climb like a rocket , I kept telling people it was at the expense of the dollar, and if they looked at the WEBS they would see the U.S. was not doing all that good on a global basis, but the news pundits over here never pointed that out. Foreigners saw us doing better after the first of the year as the dollar came crawling back up. The Yen carry trade used by the big investment bankers depends on the market going up and the yen down , however the more recent gains in the dollar make it very profitable for them to sell off the blue chips cash in and pay back the Yens with cheaper ones. ----------------- The whole thing is so crooked it's hard to keep up with all the twists and turns. Seems small caps can side step this mess at least for a while. But a lot of Big Cap Funds have had good money inflows while their navs have lost grownd and are now window dressing by buying smaller ( thinner traded stocks ) to maintain or try to jack up their Navs. Thing is after that runs it's course when they try to get profits out of thoes thinner traded ones it's going to change the picture we see rather dramatically. If the Blue chips don't get some money put back in them before long the market is in trouble. It's already standing on the side of a cliff but doesn't seem to know it yet. It could turn around or back away from the edge, but will it ? -------------------- If this market goes being it's at the center of things then the others will soon follow and last years correction may look small ...I can't say taht will happen but the risk is real. Jim PS I have no bets except a recent small position in gold, which may turn out to have been stupid. I'm looking at a couple of small cap funds hoping for a dip to get in on. -------------------