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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (30546)	5/24/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Perhaps, the only evidence that will satisfy some of the doubters is when the first 300mm wafer rolls off a production line at TSMC. LOL! The same can be said for the "sustainability" (searching for the word?) of this 5 month recovery in the WFE Sector! Eighteen months from now, these analysts will say that the recovery extended well into the year 2000! I just would expect this type of announcement to be Press Release Worthy (either Vanguard or TSM). ... If we get the 300mm leg beneath us ... we could really be looking at something significant, IMHO. --Duker

To: Ian@SI who wrote (30546)	5/24/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Double-digit growth for chip industry seen for next two years, researcher says A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted 12:30 p.m. EST/9:30 a.m., PST, 5/24/99 SAN JOSE -- The semiconductor industry can expect double-digit growth to return this year and keep up through 2001 before slowing down to about half that by 2003, according to the quarterly report on the industry by Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group Inc. The market is projected to grow from $153 billion in 1999 to $244 billion by 2003 (see chart below). Personal computers, consumer electronics, and communications equipment will be the main drivers of this growth, the San Jose market researcher said in the alert, "Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast: Market Still on Track for Double-Digit Revenue Growth in 1999." But the DRAM market will continue to shape the outlook for the overall semiconductor industry, Dataquest analysts said. "A key assumption to the forecast is a DRAM shortage starting in late 2000, which will cause DRAM revenue to peak in 2001," said Ron Bohn, director of research for Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group. "After that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply will repeat itself." The Americas will continue to be the leading region of semiconductor revenue through 2003. Semiconductor revenue in the Americas will grow from $51 billion in 1999 to $83 billion by 2003. Asia-Pacific revenue will increase from $35 billion in 1999 to $58 billion in 2003. Semiconductor revenue in Europe will jump from $33 billion in 1999 to $52 billion in 2003, while revenue in Japan will reach $35 billion this year and $51 billion in 2003. PCs, consumer electronics, and communications equipment will together account for about two-thirds of the total. Of the top 20 high-growth semiconductor applications, nine are communication applications, six are consumer applications, and four are PC workstation applications, said Joe Grenier, vice president of Dataquest's semiconductor device programs. "There is a fourth major driver of the semiconductor industry, automotive electronics, which accounts for the remaining high-growth application," Grenier said. These applications are growing because of trends such as the digital home, the global communications explosion, personal mobility, electronic commerce, and the need for more bandwidth everywhere, Another megatrend affecting semiconductor suppliers and the high-growth markets is the industry's move to system-level integration (SLI), or systems-on-a-chip (SOC). This will reshape future customer/supplier business models, as well as provide the vehicle to low-cost systems. 204.247.196.14