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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (30572)	5/25/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

So if there is going to be all this DRAM famine that we've been hearing about since March, why has MU been falling everyday? Seems to me that the market does not agree with the "gurus" on this. Because: 1) the Market is not efficient; 2) Dataquest is wrong; 3) I have heard about DRAM gluts since March; 4) DRAM forecasts suck; and 5) the young Yoda gave one heck of a performance. --Duker

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (30572)	5/25/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>So if there is going to be all this DRAM famine that we've been hearing about since March, why has MU been falling everyday? Seems to me that the market does not agree with the "gurus" on this.<< Because the market and the gurus are looking at different things. DRAM famine in 2000 does not translate into profits in 1999. (In fact, one reason for the predicted DRAM famine is that the DRAM vendors have been so badly mangled in the last few years. They've been underspending on capacity and/or getting out of the business altogether. The market seems to be worried that the carnage isn't over yet.) OT--That's why I don't recommend semi stocks. I've got a pretty good feel for the business outlook, but no clue how the market will respond to it. Katherine

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (30572)	5/25/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Robert O	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Don't forget about the alleged 'invisible' hand driving that inefficient market either. Ask the big auto makers if it helps when Uncle S. is on your side. Looks like MU didn't get the big, new prosthetic HAND hoped for. ING Baring Furman Selz said Tuesday it lowered its rating on Micron Technology Inc. to a sell from a hold for now, based, in part, on possibly lower than expected anti-dumping duties imposed by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Taiwanese DRAM memory chips. (my note: I thought a Hold was a Sell!) ... The U.S. Commerce Department found on Monday that Taiwan makers had sold DRAM chips at below fair value in U.S. markets. It vowed to impose punitive import duties on Taiwan DRAM exports by October or November, pending further investigation, local media said. Taiwan manufacturers said they were not surprised by the U.S. ruling and played down the impact, saying their presence in the United States was not particularly significant. U.S. DRAM manufacturers led by Micron Technology Inc (NYSE:MU - news) filed a complaint in the United States in 1998 alleging dumping by Taiwan makers. The U.S. International Trade Commission elected in December to pursue the allegations. Taiwan manufacturers filed a countercomplaint with Taiwan authorities in April, naming Micron and the U.S. affiliates of two South Korean microchip giants -- Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Hyundai . Analysts say Taiwan's DRAM exports to the United States are worth about T$60 billion a year, or about US$1.83 billion.