Human Error takes rap for embassy bombing
eetimes.com
By George Leopold
EE Times
(05/21/99, 1:29 p.m. EDT)
WASHINGTON — Human error in intelligence gathering, not faulty
smart bombs or outdated maps, were to blame for the accidental bombing
of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, that took the lives of
three Chinese citizens, according to sources here.
Immediately after the bombing, on May 7, senior U.S. military and
intelligence officials blamed outdated maps for the tragedy that threatens
to undo U.S.-Chinese relations.
In the weeks that followed, however, industry and government sources as
well as private analysts have asserted that mistakes made by U.S. photo
interpreters rather than map makers at the National Imagery and
Mapping Agency (NIMA; Bethesda, Md.) were largely at fault.
Although NIMA officials are saying little about their role in the incident, a
NIMA source called CIA assertions that faulty maps were to blame "a
damned lie."
In announcing a review of the Chinese embassy bombing last week, the
agency, breaking its silence, said that "recent news reports regarding the
accuracy of NIMA maps have been inaccurate or incomplete."
Agency officials said they won't address specific questions until an
investigation is complete, but the announcement stressed that "a
hard-copy map is neither intended, nor used, as the sole source for target
identification and approval."
Instead, targeting relies on "a variety of collection sources and automated
databases that are compiled from all-source intelligence and operational
information," NIMA's statement said.
Private analysts agree. "It's not the map makers' fault, it's the [CIA
photo] analysts'," said Kevin Kavanaugh, a researcher with the
Washington-based Federation of American Scientists and a former Army
intelligence officer. "Our ability to drop precision weapons is outpacing
our ability to better collect and disseminate intelligence."
Nevertheless, Defense Secretary William Cohen asserted days after the
embassy bombing that preliminary findings indicated "one of our planes
attacked the wrong target because the bombing instructions were based
on an outdated map." The map in question dated to 1997, not 1992 as
previously reported.
Cohen said new procedures would be instituted to update maps and
intelligence databases, including directing NIMA and the Defense
Intelligence Agency to establish "new rapid-response procedures for
updating critical databases for no-strike targets" such as embassies.
Prior to the bombing, military planners thought they had targeted the
Yugoslav Federal Directorate of Supply and Procurement. Instead,
targeters mistakenly directed a B-2 bomber to strike the Chinese
embassy with several satellite-guided bombs, killing three. The incident
touched off a furor in China, prompting President Clinton to offer China a
formal apology.
Finger pointing
The targeting mistake ignited a round of finger-pointing here as senior
military and intelligence leaders scrambled to contain the damage. Some
intelligence officials even asserted that the bombing resulted from recent
funding cuts. Along with budget cuts, former CIA Director Robert Gates
blamed the incident on NIMA's "outdated maps," which he said caused
photo analysts to misidentify the target. U.S. officials said military
databases used to check the accuracy of the mapping data failed to catch
the error.
The seemingly concerted effort to blame NIMA had some observers
steamed. "People are having a heyday with this," a NIMA spokesman
said. "We have lousy [human intelligence]," added Kavanaugh, the private
analyst. "The CIA didn't do its homework."
NIMA's defenders stressed that the type of intelligence used to
disseminate targeting data — a group of tactical intelligence programs
collectively known as Tiara — often takes a backseat in intelligence
circles to glitzy strategic spying programs. The military has for years been
trying to develop an all-source analysis system to collect and disseminate
intelligence to the battlefield in near-real time.
Grilled by reporters during a briefing on the bombing earlier this month, a
senior intelligence official speaking on background said the process used
to target buildings in Belgrade was not based solely on maps. "I can't get
into the details, but it was not a single source," the official said.
Critics nevertheless blamed the Pentagon and CIA, rather than NIMA,
for sloppy intelligence work. "You have to do the all-source intelligence
work" to accurately find bombing targets in urban areas, said one
observer.
NIMA was formed in 1996 as a joint military and civilian intelligence
organization to provide mapping and three-dimensional geospatial imagery
to the military and some industry customers. However, sources inside and
outside the agency said it has had its share of problems finding a
post-cold war role. "It's a new outfit with some kinks to work out," said
one observer.
The CIA's annual combined budget, which includes NIMA and the
National Security Agency, is estimated to be about $30 billion. The
agency does not break out spending by category, hence it is not known
how much is spent annually on imagery collection. According to private
estimates, the Pentagon spent about $12 billion on Tiara programs in
fiscal 1994.
Critics disputed that U.S. intelligence agencies lack the funds to carry out
tactical missions like targeting. "This is not a resource issue, this is an
organizational issue," said Kavanaugh. "The mission emphasis isn't there." |
