To: Judy who wrote (26626 ) 6/11/1999 6:38:00 PM From: Jeff Jordan Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
Sentiment now getting very bullish in your favor! Most Analysts See Fed Rate Hike Soon Updated 6:22 PM ET June 11, 1999 By Isabelle Clary NEW YORK (Reuters) - An overwhelming majority of Wall Street experts expect Federal Reserve policy makers to raise short-term U.S. interest rates at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on June 29-30, a Reuters poll showed Friday. The poll, taken after the release of two important U.S. economic indicators, showed economists at 18 out of 22 Wall Street brokerage firms anticipating the FOMC will push the federal funds rate for overnight inter-bank lending to 5.0 percent from its current 4.75 percent at month-end. This is up sharply from a Reuters poll taken on May 19, when only four of these economists predicted a June 30 credit tightening, the day after the FOMC announced it has adopted a bias toward raising interest rates, Two economic reports, released Friday before the poll was taken, showed robust retail sales and subdued wholesale inflation in May and came as no surprise, shedding little fresh light on the U.S. interest rate outlook. But heightened anti-inflation rhetoric by several Fed officials lately has apparently convinced Wall Street the Fed is serious about interest rates since announcing nearly a month ago that it is leaning toward tighter credit. Wall Street was not immediately sold on the idea that the Fed would see fit hike rates as early as June. But now, several firms predict not only a rate hike in June, but more in the second half of 1999. "Domestic demand growth is much stronger than expected and the Fed even said it will inevitably outpace production gains if it remains this high," said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston. In its May 18 policy statement, the FOMC cited "already-tight domestic labor markets and ongoing strength in demand in excess of productivity gains" as the key reason for leaning toward hiking the funds rate. Another argument in favor of higher U.S. interest rates is that the Fed may need to reverse the three rate cuts it implemented last fall to shield the U.S. economy from a global crisis. The global situation has improved markedly since then, with even long-depressed Japan surprising many this week by reporting a strong economic rebound. Neal Soss, managing director at CS First Boston, said the Fed's own statement on June 30 will again be crucial for financial markets struggling to get a clear sense of the Fed's longer-term intentions. "It all depends on the rationale the Fed provides, whether it is an "insurance," and then just 25 basis points would do," Soss said. "But if it talks about the need to address a trade-off between growth and inflation because we run out of labor force or productivity gains, be prepared for much more substantial moves." Related Stories Fed Gov.: U.S. Economy May Be Cooling (Jun 11 12:14 am ET) Gov.: Fed Watching Closely For Inflation (Jun 10 2:09 pm ET) Bankers Think Fed Will Raise Rates (Jun 10 1:29 am ET) Bankers Convinced Greenspan Will Up Rates (Jun 9 4:48 pm ET) Delegates Say No Surprises From Greenspan (Jun 9 1:05 pm ET) Delegates Saw No Surprises In Greenspan Speech (Jun 9 12:52 pm ET) Top Bankers Firmly Expect Fed To Up Rates (Jun 9 10:40 am ET)