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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ogod who wrote (2828)	5/28/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

ogod, The flow was radically restricted by materials injected into the well bore during the kill attempts plus the fact that the pipe had to shared with a huge bunch of water. Bob

To: ogod who wrote (2828)	5/28/1999 9:40:00 PM
From: Dave E.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15703

I heard a while ago that 40-50 million cu ft per day would not be out of the question given the experience to date. As Bearcatbob says there is a lot of junk in the hole. (Greyhairs - Does that still include the drill-stem by the way?) Dave

To: ogod who wrote (2828)	5/28/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15703

To me, the 10 MMCF/d means nothing...zippo...zilch...nadda...squat !! ogod, here's some facts for you to ponder: 1) ELH #1 well had penetrated only 17 feet of the target Temblor zone before it blew out. 2) From technical data on other wells in the San Joaquin basin, the Temblor zone here could be about 2,000 feet thick although only about 85% would be sand (the balance would be shale). So, they actually have a pretty decent shot at picking up 1,700 feet of gas pay !! Yes, that's 100 times more pay than was penetrated by the ELH #1 well and equivalent to a building 170 stories high. Really kinda mind boggling, isn't it ?? 3) During the first 2 weeks of the blowout the well was flowing at rates estimated to be between 100 and 130 MMCF/d. Now that was just from 17 feet of sand. So a sand that is 100 times that thick could possibly put out.... HOLY CHIT, that's a pile of gas !!!!! 4) When the ELH #1 was flowing at the reported 100-130 MMCF/d, it was flowing at it's "wellhead AOF (Absolute Open Flow) Potential". Such rates are completely meaningless for all practical purposes (since NO wells ever produce commercially under such conditions of no back pressure on the wellhead). So, just as you probably concluded from your own good common sense, a rate that is 100 times bigger is also meaningless. 5) The "gas" flow rate of ELH #1 has certainly "dropped" dramatically since the early and very high initial rates were estimated. Shortly after the well effluent had been contained through the surface gathering system we are told the well was producing at an estimated 45 MMCF/day plus 500 barrrels/day condensate plus 30,000 barrels/day of water. Pretty F'n impressive still !! Then later, after they had attempted a total of 8 surface kills (which required injection of tons of ball bearings and other "plugging agents" to try and block\obstruct\plug\stop the flow), the well was still able to crank out some 10 MMCF/d and about 100 bbls/d of condensate and 15,000 bbls/day of water. And do not forget that all this time there is still a big drilling bit sitting on bottom and there's 3.5 miles of drill string still in the hole also restricting the flow. I actually find that impressive as hell !! 6) There are very strong technical arguments which suggest that the water being produced by ELH #1 will NOT be of any concern for future producing wells. 7) There is also very good technical evidence that the gas reserve is indeed very, very large. Reserves in the 2 TCF to 4 TCF to 14 TCF are certainly possible but will take many many months of extended production testing to "prove" up. grayhair's Conclusion: There sure is a whole lot of ooomph in this beast and the commercial productivity of wells in this structure is not in any way shape or form a practical concern\issue\risk. At a minimum we are likely dealing with a reserve of ~3 TCF. I personally expect that as a matter of good engineering practice the producers in this pool will be held back\limited\constrained to rates of somewhere in the range of 50-100 MMCF/d (only 18.3-36.5 BCF/yr). Not too bad at all when your gas sells for ~$3US/mcf and your unit cost of production plus processing plus transportation plus royalties combined is only in the order of say $1.15/mcf. JMHOBWTHDIK. This prospect has substantial remaining risk. I have a very large personal interest in two of the companies participating in this prospect so do your own due diligence and form your own investment opinions\decisions consistent with your own risk tolerance. Good luck and have a pleasant weekend. Later, grayhairs P.S.--ogod, very shortly after those diesel engines shut down and that 13,000 HP went silent I reached for that little old cookie jar and I did some last minute shopping. And, I'm very pleased to say that I was able to round out my Odd Lot !! <ggg> But, please don't tell Mrs. Grayhairs. She'll kick my butt to China if she ever finds out what I've done with the Viagra money !! <ggg>