To: Serge Collins who wrote (11712 ) 6/3/1999 3:02:00 AM From: nick cash Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18016
insofar as fundamentals, i agree with much of what the detractors have said regarding nn's horrid execution. further, i am stunned that they are guiding down already lowered #'s for q1. with C$115mm inadvertently sandbagged <g> from q4, if they can't work with that to meet reduced #'s, then i don't know what the hell they are doing. i have not had time to talk with the company yet; but i have plenty of questions that need answers. the most puzzling question for me is fy2000 revenues. current guidance for fy200 revenue growth is roughly a 23% gain over the year that jsut ended. ok.... wan packet now represents 70% of revenues, tdm 30%. order intake for wan packet over the past 2 quarters has trended well in excess of 100% annualized growth. tdm comps should be easy this year as 3 of 4 quarters were horrendous for tdm in fy99. so..... lets be conservative and assume that despite >100% order growth rates, these wan packet orders only result in a 60% revenue growth rate for the year (well within expectations). lets be pessimistic and just peg tdm as flat for the year despite easy comps. do the math and this would equate to 42% revenue growth for the year. both analysts and the company are guiding to less than 23% revenue growth for the year. huh? company has stated that 'orders' are for immediate shipment ($115mm in missed q4 orders will be all shipped by the end of this week per alan on the call). so....... what's wrong with this picture? am i missing something or is this the new math i heard so much about growing up? either there's a couple of hundred million dollars worth of upside to the numbers (granted, these are canadien monopoly money dollars <g>, but still, that's a lot of hotels on boardwalk) or something is really wrong. ok, it's late. all imo only.....nick