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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (34)	6/3/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

I am not impressed with the quality of this first rally try. On DOW, I really thought it would hold above 10,640, and attempt 10,750 area. This has not happened. Also, SPX failure to even reach 1,315 leads me to suggest more backtesting of recent lows. I bought July 100 DJX out of money puts @ 1 1/2 based on this knowing full well we will run into tomorrow's employment #'s. These puts could get shot down if tomorrow's report is favorable. I will take my chances here and bet the numbers show tightening labor force and hence anticipatory FED 1/4 point increase in rates by the end of June. J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (34)	6/4/1999 1:35:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

MARKET COMMENTARY mid-day report 6/4/99 Market likes initial "first look" of Employment #'s as relief rally gets the market out of the box real strong as major market indexes hit the following intraday highs: DOW 10,756, SPX 1,314, COMP 2,455, NDX 2,087, SOX 402, DOT 552 just to give a snapshot. We are now fading off these highs (the DOW fairly significantly only up +25 after high of +88) as "inconclusive evidence" on FED's next move will have to wait for PPI and CPI #'s on 6/11 and 6/16 respectively. This is a continued overhang on the market. Non-farm payrolls only increased +11,000 and significantly lower than street expectations of +200,000. This is what the boys were keying in on and rally took off. Unemployment ticked lower to 4.2% from 4.3% and is a 29 year low. Hourly wages increased +0.4% vs. consensus estimate of 0.3% and hence now we see market's closer "second look" with some reservation. Bond yield initially liked the news and we got as low as 5.917% and now we have snapped right back up to 5.96%. Low summer volume and breadth is narrowly positive as gainers lead decliners 15 to 13. Techs are rallying smartly. Let us see if the afternoon session bounces back up near the highs of day. I will be out til after the close. Best. J.T.