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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3311)	6/3/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 5390

QCOM phone offerings are their aggregate of the phones they make PLUS the phones sold by ASIC customers. QCOM can succeed for now with one phone model if the marketing surveys they do are correct and they produce the right phone. No MISTAKES though, that's the problem IMO.No margin for error. I bet the Q phone, when all is added up, was a loss and that therefore the impact of its extinction on Q margins will be positive..

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3311)	6/3/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5390

You are absolutely right that the % IS-95 growth rate is slowing down....but i've always agreed with you that talking about 500% growth rates off of small bases means very little. The current estimates are for in excess of 50 million IS-95 subscribers by year-end versus 23 million last year. I think that this number will prove to be too low (look at qcom ASIC production last quarter and the fact that it looks like they will beat that this quarter). Does this represent a slow down in growth? In percentage terms, yes...in absolute numbers, no. It all depends on how you interpret the numbers, I would just hope that you would do so consistently. I think we are arguing about different things (unfortunately i think this happens all the time when you debate members of the Q thread). There is no doubt in my mind that Nokia is currently the world's best overall handset manufacturer. You are also right that the upgrade cycle will begin to take over in the next two years as new buyers of phones are tapped out. What will cause them to upgrade? More battery life, a new color, an extra band? Nope. It will be data, and this will be in the form of CDMA (in the form of 3G). Nokia still needs to prove that they have this expertise. As to the current Qualcomm lineup of phones. There is no doubt that the Q needs to greatly expand its current lineup. As DaveMG stated there isnt currently much margin of error for Qualcomm. However I think they have bought their handset division some more time with the Thinphone. If they dont have at least a couple of competitive offerings by this time next year it will probably be time to sell the handset division and concentrate on ASIC's. I'm still curious as to the highest data rates currently available on GSM/TDMA handsets. Anyone out there know? Slacker