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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill who wrote (6435)6/3/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9236
 
For those with the time to do more in depth homework, these appear to be the third and fourth patents, issued to companies other than AWRE, related to splitterless systems.
#5901205
#5909445
Try www.uspto.gov
Tim



To: Bill who wrote (6435)6/3/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: Steve Rolfe  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9236
 
I can think of no better comparison than 56K rollouts. For argument sake... If Aware could manage to be a part of 10 million units during 2000...

If they make is $1.50 per unit as you suggest(I believe they derive revenues from other areas as well although I admit I struggle finding out exactly how they make all of their revenue)

They have 21,378,000 shares outstanding (42% held by institutions by the way-much higher than I expected)

EPS = 15,000,000 / 21,378,000 = .70

At $50/Share the PE would be 50/.70 = 71 = Reasonable especially in todays crazy market

Do they hit 10,000,000 in 2000? Who knows. But if ADSL rolls out similar to 56K rolling out there are many more millions of units to be shipped. Keep in mind PC manufacturers are putting this technology into PC's ahead of the actual rollout by the RBOC's. So Aware gets revenue before actual deployment to the PC users.

I don't think Aware is anywhere near as overvalued as what you are indicating with those big numbers. I think this is a technical event that has created a buying opportunity. The only thing that scares me is competition which has not really developed at this point. The big names that have signed on with Aware give me great confidence that this is a winner.