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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (4019)	6/3/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: MangoBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

[BellSouth Testing Fiber-Optic Links] ATLANTA (AP) - BellSouth is wiring 400 homes with a direct optic link, testing a super-fast, but costly ''fiber-to-the-curb'' connection that may one day replace copper phone wires. The new Internet and video service uses a new technology called passive optical networking developed by Lucent Technologies and Oki Electric Industry Co. of Japan. The trial will begin this fall in an Atlanta suburb and may be expanded to other BellSouth markets later, the regional phone company said Thursday. In theory, the new link can carry data at 100 megabits per second - up to 150 times faster than the copper phone-wire technology called DSL, or digital subscriber line, that BellSouth and other companies have been introducing around the country. Atlanta-based BellSouth will price the service at $59.95 per month, the same as it charges for DSL. While BellSouth and other companies have already installed ''fiber-to-the-curb'' systems shared by several homes, the new system will run into each home individually and doesn't require a power source between the network and the home. ''This is much more expensive, of course, but it enables significantly greater capability,'' said Rex G. Mitchell, an analyst for Banc of America Securities. ''This is good news. No one has done this yet.'' BellSouth declined to disclose the cost of installing the fiber-optic line, but spokesman John Goldman said the price is expected to be as cheap as copper wire in two years as demand grows and technology improves. Telephone and cable companies have been scrambling to find ways to deliver faster Internet connections that can handle video and other data-heavy applications. Not everyone can get DSL, which is usually sold at speeds ranging from 0.640 to 1.5 megabits per second, because the signal can't travel very far from a phone network switch before fading. Therefore, the new fiber technology might help BellSouth compete with rivals like AT&T who are planning to use cable TV wires for Internet, telephone and television service. ''We want to gain some information and some experience,'' BellSouth's Goldman said. ''Widespread deployment in the region is probably about two years away.'' In addition to high-speed Internet access, BellSouth's new fiber link will feature 120 channels of digital video entertainment, 70 channels of analog video, and 31 channels of digital audio service.

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (4019)	6/3/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Hello Bernard, I can offer a few pieces on Copper Mtn and CO equipment vendors, but I don't think a precise picture can be formulated yet. Also, this is only from reading and not from direct working experience with these products so get the salt shaker handy<g>. The CO equipment vendors/products include: NORTEL ACCESS NODE EXPRESS NEWBRIDGE MAINSTREET XPRESS Alcatel 1000ASAM, 1000RAM CISCO 6XXX UAC COPPER MTN COPPEREDGE DIAMOND LANE SPEEDLINK, SLM-1700 ORCKIT SPEEDPORT PAIRGAIN AVIDIA NETOPIA SDSL ROUTER PARADYNE HOTWIRE 8XXX WESTELL SUPERVISION As for Copper Mountain, as you mentioned many CLEC's are customers of their multi-DSL concentrator, but they haven't addressed the ADSL market yet. Also all products to date are based on Frame Relay only, which is viewed as a limiting factor going forward. The worldwide DSLAM unit growth projections (from In-Stat) are: 32% in '98; 74% in '99; 91% in '00; 29% in '01 Of this, SDSL growth peaks this year; ADSL peaks this year at 89% y/y and is substantially lower going forward; ADSL-lite also peaks this year at 990%, then is projected (y/y) at 729%, 41%, and 28% in '02. Based on these numbers, Copper Mountain needs to work on their ADSL shortcomings to justify such a high PSR (for CO equipment anyway). Perhaps they can overcome this with CPE sales. Then again, financial ratios have meant all of nothing for the past year so who knows. dh

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (4019)	6/3/1999 11:41:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

Hi Bernard, I'm afraid that I've lost track of who's on first, what's on second, and so on, in this respect. The RBOC Procurement Consortium RFP of two years ago going to Alcatel (I think the award was for something like $300MM) should factor into this in some way, I would imagine. Although, I don't know to what extent that order is going to see fulfillment, and who the OEMs eventually turned out to be with licensing rights to produce those units. Or even if those same units are still relevant the way they once were. I suppose there were allowances in the contracts for design upgrades. Moores Law could potentially be responsible for some treacherous deeds here, though. Another observation might be that we're only a few percentage points into the chasm on this one, and it still may be too early to tell who the eventual leader will be. Someone can jump out of the box next week and take the remaining marbles. Seen this sort of thing happen all to often. Sorry I couldn't be of more help. Regards, Frank Coluccio