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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (60306)	6/3/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Respond to of 164684

>>Being on the upswing doesn't mean out of the woods.<< There you said it. A trend is a trend until it reverses. It's just a matter of degree. >>Greenspan's style. He's a gradualist.<< The man has big ears. All shrewd and smart businessmen have big ears. And they are all full of surprise. (i.e. Warren Buffet) <GGG>

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (60306)	6/3/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

William -- A gradualist approach will drive up long rates higher than three quick hikes. I mentioned the yield curve before -- this is the critical thing at this stage. If AG makes a small move or no move in the face of strong data, long bond yields will jump through the roof. On the other hand, if AG hikes aggressively he can still flatten the yield curve and send the signal that he is not 'behind the curve'. With due respect for your judgement and intelligence, you were wrong before to suggest that the level of the long bond matters more than the shape of the yield curve. What matters is the shape of the yield curve because that is what AG is managing and that is what the bond market will use to gauge how high rates must go to cool the economy.