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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (60539)	6/4/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Respond to of 1571862

Tad - < AMD goes to $36 before INTC goes to $100, despite many of the valid points that you have made on this thread.> The only problem I have with this is that I'm a buy and holder. AMD does not inspire confidence in this regard. How long will it stay at 36? And what's AMD's long term growth potential? Does AMD's product roadmap have the legs for my timeframe very long)? INTC, despite your points, has the cash to do something about the growth issue. AMD has one product. One. All IMHO. PB

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (60539)	6/4/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Respond to of 1571862

Tad - < AMD goes to $36 before INTC goes to $100, despite many of the valid points that you have made on this thread.> The only problem I have with this is that I'm a buy and holder. AMD does not inspire confidence in this regard. How long will it stay at 36? And what's AMD's long term growth potential? Does AMD's product roadmap have the legs for my timeframe very long)? INTC, despite your points, has the cash to do something about the growth issue. AMD has one product. One. All IMHO. PB

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (60539)	6/5/1999 2:42:00 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1571862

RE: "the willingness of INTC management to pay substantial premia over market value" Tad, 2X revenue isn't substantial premia. Suppose T-bills were earning 7.5% and a company was earning 15% of revenue on sales. Then an investment in the company at exactly 2X sales would earn you exactly the same as T-bills. Company earnings could grow 30% in the next year, whereas the T-bill would be the same year after year. Of course, it always gets down to what the buyer will pay. WebTV had essentially zero sales, and sold for $450M. Dialogic had about $290M in sales and sold for $780M. But if you subtract out DLGC's cash, the figure is more like $680M. Plus, the opp is $17B. RE: "I would think that AMD goes to $36 before INTC goes to $100" I would think that AMD goes to $9 before INTC goes to $25. And that's the problem with AMD: its commons act like options. And Intel leaps appear to be more attractive than AMD commons. Amy J

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (60539)	6/5/1999 9:49:00 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1571862

Tad, I enjoy your posts and appreciate your comments but aren't you describing pretty much the normal "cycle" of core portfolio holdings versus "non-core" ones? The investment community will never sell (until its too late?) Intel because of its dominance in its market. AMD will outperform Intel only if you are willing to trade it and trade it correctly since the buy must be followed by a sell as well as possibly a short sell. Few would be willing to bet that "this time it's different" not when the stock has such violent swings. Disclosure: I have owned AMD in the past since I believe in the validity of the story but haven't made much from it although you have got me interested again!