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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (24734)	6/4/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: F Robert Simms	Respond to of 44573

So far my models have been very accurate, however as I said that I don't have of my data so am working on just a couple of my models that have full data. They are roughly 75% accurate the last few months:) But the 75% depends on when you sell and if you can handle the drawdowns. Best Wishes, Bob EDIT: I made some new models and they were all out of the market at the close.

To: Compadre who wrote (24734)	6/5/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: F Robert Simms	Respond to of 44573

I forgot to tell you that I don't model the nasdaq 100, just the SPX. Also, I forgot to tell you that often models will quit working all at once. The main model that I based my last prediction on has been working great only since the beginning of the year and can quit working at any time. That is why I try to use several models. If one quits working then the others should keep me from going too wrong. However, that only works when my models have data. I used to have models that gave a 90% win rate in back testing. As soon as I would start to use them they would have a lousy rate. What I was doing then was curve fitting to past data and not building a predictive net. Best Wishes, Bob