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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: briskit who wrote (16041)	6/4/1999 4:45:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Mike, the 1321 was bear king's elliot wave read resistance; bill mitchell, who is prechter's stock market analyst, names 1320-40 as his objective for the corrective rally, also based on the wave count. based on today's index options trading i suspect that one more strong day is possible, but not necessarily so. i have to say though that bullish interpretations have gained some ground today, with the SPX climbing back above the 50-day EMA and AOL re-crossing above the recently broken support level. also the extreme volatility of the nutz in recent sessions coupled with some buying by the funds could be seen as an attempt to find a bottom here. nevertheless, today's rally has not convinced me yet that the market is about to resume it's climb. in all likelihood bullish sentiment will increase even further as a result of this, and people will be sucked back into the market too early. at this time i still expect the up-move to exhaust soon and selling to resume. as always, i reserve the right to change my opinion if and when my indicators tell me to. regards, hb

To: briskit who wrote (16041)	6/4/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mike: I do not use Elliot wave. However, the 100 points was derived in two ways. When the INDU was up about 30 points or so a little pennant formed. It pointed to an additional 100 points. Additionally, the inverted H&S on the INDU pointed to 10800 also. With today's light volume, I consider today as a non-event. However, the players tipped their hand from about 11:30 eastern. By watching the relationship between NYSE advancing volume and declining volume and watching the relationship between the NYSE advancing and declining issues, I could see the sneaky buying. At the start, advancing volume exceeded declining volume by about 110 million--it may have been a little lower when it first started. As the day progressed, the nibbling gained momentum. The difference increased to 115 million and kept going from there to 110 million. The next step moved to a 120 million difference. This was happening with the issues relationship changing very little. The INDU and the SPX, etc. were doing nothing. The volume difference progressed in bites to 130 million and then 135 million. It kept taking a little back-step along the way. By about 2 PM eastern or so, it was around 150 million or so. Finally, it moved to 180 million and the issues started following. Then it was time to let everyone in on it.