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To: Daniel G. DeBusschere who wrote (10345)6/5/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
Dan,

"I think the genie is out of the bottle on this one for "consumer" markets... the consumer wants a flat rate and knows only too well how the long distance bill gets out of hand quick with just a few calls. The flat rate ISP pricing is now known and accepted."

The genie may have to go into retirement at some point, or at least agree to coexist with another host, in my humble opinion.

Expanding expectations of net services will transcend yesterday's and today's contentment with the existing surfing model, and differentiation (tiering) will become relevant for those who need it, at first, and then become assimilated into the greater model for all.

At first, there will be a chasm that will begin to reflect a have-have not dualism, until a new status is reached whereby certain payloads will have assurances, and some will not. CMTO, TERN, and others are betting on this, as are some cable operators, already.

I think that your assumptions are safe, for at least another one to two years, but planning cycles for MSOs and other players go beyond those limits. Today, 18 months can signify an entire shift in the model, altogether. The foregoing is predicated on the assumption that the current HFC model is used, BTW. The introduction of greater quantities of fiber may alleviate some of these conditions for a spell, if they were introduced, in other words.

Another observation, if I may, is that performance based premiums for QoS/ToS services need not take place at the monthly bill level, directly between the user and the primary facilities-based provider. Instead, price-feature averaging can take these issues into account at monthly pricing tiers, i.e., be factored into a higher monthly rate, with periodic adjustments made to the pricing model, over time. This is the kind of thing that fosters term contracts, which I think will also become pertinent at some point.

Regards, Frank Coluccio