To: arthur pritchard who wrote (131243 ) 6/4/1999 11:27:00 PM From: Kayaker Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
Arthur, Don't tell anybody <ggg>, but FWIW, I agree that Dell is probably not going to perform well, at least for the rest of the year. These bits from an article a few days ago (by Jim Seymour from TheStreet.com) sums it up pretty well for me, particularly the last paragraph. I've been reading Jim Seymour's columns in PC Magazine since the early 80's, and IMHO he knows computers.... The effect of Banc of America Securities analyst Kurt King's Tuesday downgrades of Hewlett-Packard (HWP:NYSE), and Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq) on the broader personal-computer and server market continues. Worried about purchasing cutbacks in the last half of this year based on corporate redirection of funds into "hot fixes" for last-minute Y2K problems, King pulled both down to holds from buys. After big hits yesterday, both stocks were down more at midday, along with PC makers IBM (IBM:NYSE), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq), Compaq (CPQ:NYSE) and others....The problem is that six months to a year ago, these buyers began diverting 1999 capital-acquisition funds into slush funds to deal, on a short-term basis, with Y2K problems in their software and hardware infrastructure. To a certain extent, that included replacing older PCs and servers with current machines -- which is one reason this slowdown has been so late and, so far, so mild -- but that's pretty much complete.... So yes, sure, the Y2K hardware-purchasing slowdown has begun, and it will get a good deal worse later this year, as I've said often here. But that slowdown, per Kurt King, isn't based on buyers' worries about major vendors' hardware, but about the need to spend a finite supply of IT-related dollars on software fixes over the next nine months or so.