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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (16081)	6/5/1999 1:20:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Chip, for a simpler volume method- You may want to study On Balance Volume. It is a simplified method of using up and down volume to find targets for reversals. Here's an example of an OBV divergence,(or non-confirmation) in a chart of HM- iqc.com Look at the bottoms on the price chart- One in Dec., and the current one. Then compare the OBV chart to it at Dec. and currently. The OBV has gone up considerably, while the price has gone down. A rising OBV indicates accumulation. The price has been driven down on light volume days. It has been going up on heavy volume days. The price will most usually follow the volume. Hence, I am bullish on HM. Regards, TW

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (16081)	6/7/1999 7:52:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Chip: I use Arm's indicator in a number of conventional and unconventional ways. For me, it is the single most important tool there is. If you just started using volume, the April numbers were strange because the issues were trying to lead volume for days. I looked back over several years and it is abnormal The 5-day Arm's, used in one of my unconventional ways, is saying that the decline is in its early stages and we have not seen the bottom. That is based on several years of data. Currently, I expect a resumption of the decline. However, some of the best opportunities have been when the unexpected happened. Such was the case in early October 1998 (1900 INDU point run after it) and during the day after we had the globex limit down night in April 1999 (700 INDU point run after it). One thing I have learned over the decades about the market is that we can have expectations and beliefs but we cannot turn them into an ideology. That is why I am neither a bear nor a bull.