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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (1557)	6/5/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Jim, On Disney: I'm also watching it but not buying currently. There are lots of question marks in my mind. I'm one of the people who believes the internet changes everything for media outlets. ABC: I'm negative on the longer term outlook for mass media outlets. The internet is clearly preferable form of entertainment for many as shown by the declining network viewship. Growth of cable and niche programming is also diluting viewership. I see no reason that the long term trend shouldn't work against ABC, but Disney resources should be able to create new programming to fill niche markets. Discovery channel is a good example. ESPN: Has been a strong performer. Recently I've found the Fox Sportsouth competitive offering to be a a strong alternative to "Sportscenter," but otherwise I honestly I don't think ESPN is at much risk. Their pricing power with cable companies is one example of their importance within the cable lineup. Theme Parks: Don't know alot there, but I haven't seen anything close to the quality of entertainment Disneyworld can provide. Movies: I don't see any particular advantage here except in children's titles. The children's entertainment titles should provide annuitylike income into the future. Whether they can they continue to develop "hits" in the future - I don't know. But they'll have probably a better chance than anyone. Pixar will be in on the mix now. Does anyone think Disney has an opportunity to leverage its stable of older characters in future new theatrical releases (New movies - not just re-realeases of existing films)? Goodwill - in the past you've mentioned the large amount of goodwill on the books due to ABC purchase. We should all probably remember to take that into account. CEO Eisner is seeming to increasingly be a liability to the company - running off a lot of top talent - and ending up having to pay them huge amounts of money in the process. I'd be somewhat disgusted with this if I was currently a shareholder. Bottom line: I guess I start to get real interested in DIS in the low $20s. Under $20 and I'm almost certain to be nibbling (at least). Mentally, I'd think $20 could be an area that alot of investors begin to target as the "cheap point.' Shane

To: James Clarke who wrote (1557)	6/7/1999 5:00:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 4691

Disney seen mulling restructuring Magic Kingdom needs jump start amid slow growth By Brenon Daly, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:41 PM ET Jun 4, 1999 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- ... speculation the entertainment giant may revamp part of its sprawling kingdom, analysts said. "There's some buzz about some kind of a restructuring," said Banc of America Securities analyst Mark Zadell. "It wouldn't surprise me, because a low stock price can be an excuse to make some positive moves." The entertainment giant has had tough going in recent quarters, and Banc of America projects Disney will increase sales just 3.5 percent this fiscal year vs. 6 percent the previous year. The reasons: a lack of popular home videos and sluggish sales of Disney clothing, toys and tchotchkes that make up its big merchandising arm. Shares of Disney (DIS: news, msgs), virtually flat for 1999, gained 1 11/16 to 30 11/16. More than 8.7 million shares of the stock, which is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, changed hands, vs. average daily volume of 6.7 million. Today on CBS MarketWatch Tom Deegan, a spokesman for Disney, declined to comment on the stock movement or speculation on a restructuring. However, following the company's announcement in April of fiscal second-quarter results, Disney chief executive Michael Eisner said the company is "taking a number of steps, including an across-the-board assessment of our cost structure to address the (sluggish growth.). We intend to make our businesses more efficient, increase our cash flow, and position ourselves to better capitalize on the long-term growth potential of our brands." In the second quarter, revenue increased just 5 percent to $5.5 billion, while net operating income slipped 14 percent. On Friday, options trading on Disney was unusually active. In a bullish indication, about 9,600 contracts of the June 30 calls traded, compared to an average of a few hundred over the recent sessions. A call option implies that a stock will rise in value. The June 30 calls added 13/16 to 1 5/16 on Friday afternoon. Amex trader Bruce Rogoff said he heard talk that Disney would reorganize its business, but wasn't sure how much credibility to give those reports. Similarly, Linda Bannister, analyst at Edward Jones in St Louis, said she "can't get her arms around what kind of restructuring (Disney would undertake.)"

To: James Clarke who wrote (1557)	6/7/1999 5:01:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 4691

Maybe Eisner is on the way out? Disney seen mulling restructuring Magic Kingdom needs jump start amid slow growth By Brenon Daly, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:41 PM ET Jun 4, 1999 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- ... speculation the entertainment giant may revamp part of its sprawling kingdom, analysts said. "There's some buzz about some kind of a restructuring," said Banc of America Securities analyst Mark Zadell. "It wouldn't surprise me, because a low stock price can be an excuse to make some positive moves." The entertainment giant has had tough going in recent quarters, and Banc of America projects Disney will increase sales just 3.5 percent this fiscal year vs. 6 percent the previous year. The reasons: a lack of popular home videos and sluggish sales of Disney clothing, toys and tchotchkes that make up its big merchandising arm. Shares of Disney (DIS: news, msgs), virtually flat for 1999, gained 1 11/16 to 30 11/16. More than 8.7 million shares of the stock, which is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, changed hands, vs. average daily volume of 6.7 million. Today on CBS MarketWatch Tom Deegan, a spokesman for Disney, declined to comment on the stock movement or speculation on a restructuring. However, following the company's announcement in April of fiscal second-quarter results, Disney chief executive Michael Eisner said the company is "taking a number of steps, including an across-the-board assessment of our cost structure to address the (sluggish growth.). We intend to make our businesses more efficient, increase our cash flow, and position ourselves to better capitalize on the long-term growth potential of our brands." In the second quarter, revenue increased just 5 percent to $5.5 billion, while net operating income slipped 14 percent. On Friday, options trading on Disney was unusually active. In a bullish indication, about 9,600 contracts of the June 30 calls traded, compared to an average of a few hundred over the recent sessions. A call option implies that a stock will rise in value. The June 30 calls added 13/16 to 1 5/16 on Friday afternoon. Amex trader Bruce Rogoff said he heard talk that Disney would reorganize its business, but wasn't sure how much credibility to give those reports. Similarly, Linda Bannister, analyst at Edward Jones in St Louis, said she "can't get her arms around what kind of restructuring (Disney would undertake.)"

To: James Clarke who wrote (1557)	6/7/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4691

James, Just wondering what you think of Mattel now that the WSJ has done a front page plastering of the company and its CEO? I for one now feel that the ratio of my ignorance/ignorance on WS re: Mattel has jumped a bit. The article seemed a bit skewed, but I still feel I learned some new information that I have to incorporate into my investment thesis for MAT. It's not really a low-profile company, and credibility issues have certainly arisen. Evidently an idiot can't run the company. The franchise isn't that good, maybe? Mike