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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ralph W. who wrote (61538)	6/6/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Ralph, >>I'm a SoCal player and didn't really think as highly of his colts this year as in the last few.<< I agree. I didn't think they were as good as Silver Charm but I thought they were on a par with Real Quiet. I wasn't a big fan of last year's "almost" winner either. Last year I was very high on Indian Charlie but he was very lightly raced and then went down. I've been making speed figures for over 20 years and once built a database covering several years of average winning times (in NY and stakes country wide) for every class, every surface, at every time of year as part of some handicapping research. This crop is weak. You can't really tell from one figure because there's so much that can effect any one final time, but when they are consistently slow it's telling you something. >>And how many of us were stunned to see Charismatic up front early and Day trying to drag Menifee behind him? I was. I suspect that many people were worried about the filly getting too easy a lead. I know I really wasn't. Most fillies don't like 1 1/12 on the dirt. The average winning speed figure for fillies starts declining as they stretch out real far. The other factor is that despite intuition, the Belmont is usually not won by a deep closer type. My explanation is that by the time you run 1 1/4 you have no kick left for the last 1/4. So maybe they all wanted to be a little closer than usual. It's a shame Charismatic broke down. I read that Prime Timber will be running in July so we'll learn some more. Wayne