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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (16181)	6/6/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald; I have to agree with you, I know there are times I do a one liner, mostly it's when I'm rushed and put there as bait to see what type of reacting it may or may not get..& looking to see if any one else got the same take I did. By an large I think most of my post are to wordy , and go on to much. --------------- As to the gut or emotional factor of the market What Heinz said the other day really impressed me. In case anyone missed it. the truth of the matter is that absolutely nobody knows what these stocks are worth, or if in fact they are worth anything at all. they epitomize a basic fact that runs through all stock market trading, namely emotion. these stocks trade on emotion alone, since there cannot possibly be a useful consensus on the fundamental facts (to say that the internet 'changes everything' is essentially meaningless). and this is what makes the group so important to the stock market overall, it's being the ultimate representative of emotion. imo there is no chance for the market as a whole to find a bottom before this group does. most analysts woefully underestimate the internet sector's importance; it's the emotional barometer of the market. The health of a mania surely depends on the health of the most manic sector. thus one of the most important questions before us is whether positive momentum can return to this group or not. if not, the market will be in big trouble indeed. ---------- I added the bold to the above, full post is. Message 9893917 ----------------------- Well not many days before he posted that I had started jumping on the real time quotes of Yhoo, Amzn, & Cmgi ATHM to get "emotional" read on the QQQ..While Msft, Intc, Csco , Wcom & Dell are the big hitters to the NDX index they have the clout to Push the index by their market cap weight. Msft alone will change the NDX 3 times more per 1 point move than all four of the internuts above however the nuts tend to signal the tone or emotional status and more often than not will pull the rest, many times when I see the nuts reverse at least interday then I've come to notice the NDX soon follows..yet it's not their market cap that does this. So there is no principle that says if the nuts go up or down the NDX will, however I have sure learned not to bet against their direction. ------------------------- For the over all market I would like to see more comments as to what people think Foreigners see and are doing and, and how the indexes from our point of view ( or CNBC style,) leaves out an index that is adjusted to the changes in the Dollar..( or the lager global view )and I'm sure there are big international dealers who can arbitrage in a heart beat the spreads on the Blue chips based on the changes in exchange rates. So just what the daily forex is can have an impact on the market. decisionpoint.com -------------- There is just so much going on that we don't see, and the news pundits don't even look at. Almost 95% of CNBC is emotional garbage slanted to the bull side in order to please their clients. But I just about have to watch it as that 5% that is good is often very good. --------------- What I am convinced of is the Blue Chips can give a feel for conditions we don't see in our Nationalized view. Those are the ones the Foreigners deal in. Trim Taps, nor AMG money flow data which are both good reads, yet fail to account for flows in or out of the country. So to much dependence on them can also land you in surprise land. ---------------- As foreign markets expand and take in trading of our better known stocks, more and more the data we depend on from the Naz or NYSE can have important volume and data missing. Making TA on an Index less reliable than it once was. ------------- Short term the internuts are a good barometer of sentiment, how long this will last I won't venture. AOL is the only one that I know of that Foreigners really buy and sell much of. Jim PS As usual most of my post are too dam long.