To: Bernard Levy who wrote (5083 ) 6/6/1999 7:04:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
Bernard, records are of no use. $ill Gates has an admirable record and is sure to continue it. But he, like all of us, has feats of clay to keep an eye on too. He nearly missed the internet. Unlike Ericy with CDMA, he spun on a dime and grabbed it with both hands. He didn't pretend it breached the laws of physics for a decade before lumbering into view. So all credit to him. I had never heard of Grubman until a few posts ago, but like all of us, he should justify his ideas with facts and reasoning. Reputation, position, money, huge experience and all those impressive things is no good if there is a gap in the reasoning or the premises are wrong. His claim [reported here anyway] was that Globalstar is in trouble and that the I* and G* business plans were little different from each other. The facts of the business plans and the technology which supports them is where he made his mistake. 8c a minute beats $1 a minute and that's about all the information we need, given that the other aspects of the systems are fairly similar though with the advantages nearly all to Globalstar, especially now that the time to market advantage they had has totally gone and turned to a big negative since Iridium is incurring debt rapidly with no return and buyers of the technology will now be uncertain and will wait for Globalstar. Meanwhile, Odyssey, Celestri, Teledesic, ICO, Iridium, Constellation Communications, Ellipso [maybe some others I've forgotten] have all bitten the dust, been cancelled or are in trouble. This is great. It means that Globalstar will win the competition they would have won anyway but at great cost to everyone if the competitors had all gone ahead and launched multi-$$$billions into space. Maybe Globalstar will buy Constellation Communications and ICO stuff, convert them to CDMA and give expanded early and complete coverage to the Globalstar system using the best technology available. With ICO satellites, Globalstar would give complete coverage to all points on earth and with negligible voice delay. The key to it is to get the Globalstar price per minute down to ensure handset supply matches minute prices. We need the Qualcomm, Orbitel and Telital people to be converting terrestrial handset production lines to Globalstar and leaving cdmaOne handset production to Motorola, Nokia and others if that is the fastest way to get the handset production rate increased. If AirTouch is right and they can sell all the handsets which Qualcomm can make at still charge $1.50 per minute, Globalstar will make a fortune. We should not believe AirTouch though because there has not been a handset order to match their claims. Therefore we can call them enthusiastic [or good actors] rather than honest. A bit like there was a LOT of enthusiasm for Iridium several months before their startup. Until we see cash in advance or contracted and uncancellable handset orders, we should treat the claims of AirTouch as so much flim-flam. Globalstar should cut the minute prices to get the Service Providers in a bit of a hurry to not be left out [give them an introductory special - then if they don't have handsets, they won't make sales and will miss out again when prices rise in a couple of years]. As Valueman says, you are wrong about all satellite investors' returns. My several times over is 6X which is the difference between $3 [split adjusted] and the current $18. I reckon that's not bad for 4 years. Especially since it was all borrowed money [thanks to Alan Green$pan who is helping me greatly with The New Paradigm]. I knew that a big Democratic Party donor like Bernie Schwartz, who sells secret soldering techniques to China's nuclear rocket designers would have the wily, intelligent and determined nature necessary to make Globalstar succeed. Especially since he'd partnered with those even more amazing people from Qualcomm who could make photons spin in reverse in concatenated orthogonalized harmonization, totally contrary to the edicts of Professor Lusignan. It's easy making money backing such people. Maurice