 |
 | |
 |  |
| We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level. |
these are the picks from zetazeta inspired by impristine Message 17514267 this thread is purposely listed under casinos/gaming because Wall Street is nothing but a big casino, the Specialist/Market Maker is the House, it is their job to create liquidty for the market, but make no mistake about it, their job is to transfer ownership of capital, making your money theirs ... so we are dealing with professionals whose job is to take your money, and in order to survive, we need discipline, discipline, discipline, don't let emotion get into our way, we need to swing at the pitches that are right down the middle of the plate, lay off the borderline pitches ... this is not a daytrading thread, I think we better get good in position trading before we venture into daytrading, we are in no hurry to lose more money than we have to ... there are 5 basic things we need to consider for a trade when opening a position 1) which stock to trade 2) how much to bet on 3) entry price when exiting a position 4) exit price if it goes poorly 5) exit price if it goes well to avoid using human judgement, or in other words, trying to be as objective as possible, I will be using indicators that can be found in prophetfinance.com it has the most selection of indicators of all charting services, it is $19.95 for real time data, and free for delayed and since I am not daytrading on this thread, the free delayed charts are suffice ... 1) which stock to trade at this time, I am planning to follow only the 'high volume stocks' from Yahoo stock screener screen.yahoo.com WCOM, SUNW, CSCO, INTC, ORCL, LU, MSFT, GE, JDSU, AOL, AMAT, TYC, DELL, EMC, NXTL, JNPR, BRCD, SEBL, ERICY, QCOM, AWE, NT, HPQ, T, BRCM, PFE, C, VRTS, PALM, KLAC, CPN, NOK, NVDA, Q, FLEX, BEAS, PCS, BMY, CIEN, AMGN, EMLX, XOM, QLGC and with the intense interest of precious metal lately ABX, DROOY, HGMCY, NEM, PDG and QQQ, GNSS for a total of 50 stocks to watch ... 2) how much to bet on we are entering the area of money management, since we can not fortell which trade will come out better than the others, the only logical way is to bet the same percentage on each trade, I personally think 5% will offer us enough cushion just in case we hit a nasty losing streak ... 3) entry price 4) exit price if it goes poorly 5) exit price if it goes well as to 3/4/5, it is totally dictated by the technical indicators we follow, which would be explain later in general, there are 2 ways to trade, namely, trend following and counter trend In trend following, you try to enter when a rising trend is evident and exit when a falling trend develops; in counter trend, you try to enter at the bottom and exit at the top ... there are pros and cons to both approaches in trend following, you are trying to capture the middle part of a trend, you are inherently late getting in and late getting out, so if the magnitude of the trend is not large enough, or if the stock is in a trading range, you will not be able to profit, but with trend following, you will not be trying to catch a falling knife or at the very least, you will not be holding a stock until it goes to zero ... in counter trend, you are trying to maximize your return by trying to catch the top and bottom, since there are usually only one bottom or one top before a new trend develops, it is much harder to do than it seems, but of course, if you are right, you have the added emotional satisfaction of calling the top or the bottom, the unfortunate result if you are wrong, is that you are catching a falling knife which can be very hazardous to your capital ... now let me discuss about the indicators that I believe will provide us with accurate indication of top and bottom: Relative Momentum Index paritech.com a buy candidate is one with reading of less than 10, and a sell candidate is one with reading of more than 90 Polarized Fractal Efficiency paritech.com a buy candidate is onw with reading of less than -100, and a sell candidate is one with reading of more than 100 ADX stockcharts.com when ADX tops out over 40, it usually signals a trend reversal those are the 3 indicators that I will be watching for a possible entry of a trade another thing I would like to talk about is the wild claims of some newsletter of 600% or 1000% gain a year ... I would not mind those results, so I took a closer look at their track records this is typically what happens, a yearly 600% gain works out to be a monthly return of 50%, and the detail of the month will show 5 trades of 10% gain ... which is fine if you made all 5 trades with 100% capital each time, but I think most will agree that it is just too risky ... in fact, you would gain 1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1 = 1.61 or 61% but, I guess, for simplicity of understanding, the newsletter would just add up the total of the gains, which is 50% but wait a minute, what if you made 2 more trades, one gaining 50% and one losing 50%, according to the newsletter, you still have a monthly gain of 50%, since the last 2 trades cancelled each other out ... not so fast, we made 61% in the first 5 trades, and if we gained 50% and lost 50% in the last 2 trades, we would have 1.61*1.5*0.5 = 1.21, your gain is reduced from 61% to 21% what happened if you have 2 more trades like that 1.21*1.5*0.5 = .90 wow, now you are down 10% even when the newsletter is still claiming that you gained 50% ... so, my friend, beware of the claim, it even got me excited for a moment ... Picks will start promptly from June 1st, I am not interested in outperforming the market on a relative basis, in other words, if the market is down, I don't want to lose less money, I just want to make some money, period, and is that too much to ask ??? | ||||||||||||
|
| Home | Hot | SubjectMarks | PeopleMarks | Keepers | Settings |
| Terms Of Use | Contact Us | Copyright/IP Policy | Privacy Policy | About Us | FAQ | Advertise on SI |
| © 2025 Knight Sac Media. Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News |