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RLYP |
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Rlyp is a drug that is competing with ZSPH for the $1.5 billion hyperkalemia market. ZSPH has been bought out by AZN for $2.7 billion but they have not been approved yet by the FDA. Last october RLYP’s drug veltassa was approved by the fda but was taken down premarket from $19 to $10. FDA warned that it binds other drugs and slapped a 6 hour window before you can take it. The stock was punished not for its safety issue but because of the inconvenience. The people that bought during the bloodbath realizing it was an overreaction is now deep in the green. The stock is currently trading at $24 as I write. IF ZSPH is worth $2.7 billion why not rlyp?
ZSPH was bought by azn because #1. lowers potassium faster, # 2. it does not bind other drugs. There is one problem, some of the patients taking ZSPH”s zs-9 experience high blood pressure and fluid overload that causes edema. Most hyperkalemia patients are chronic kidney disease patients and congestive heart failure. They don’t need more fluid overload and high blood pressure to complicate their health. If I was a doctor I don’t think I wanna find out if my patients will have that side effect. It is very hard to control their blood pressure because their kidneys that regulate HTN has been shut down. ZS-9 also was also found to bind lithium which is an indication that it binds other drugs. The fda might also slapped zsph with a 6 hour window or ask them to do more drug binding studies thereby taking away their advantage in the near future.
I think AZN jumped the gun on buying ZSPH. Wall street have overlooked and ignored RLYP thereby giving investors opportunity to buy at $10 and now has recovered to $24. It also has a 6 month head start because zsph will not get an fda decision till may. There is a risk that ZSPH can ran into more problems like fda before approval because of hypertension side effects and if proven that it binds other drugs.RLYP will also get more market share and will be harder for doctors to switch if rlyp is effective. Big Pharma will be watching RLYP also to see how it performs and if it does well, they might just buy the company to get a piece of the growing hyperkalemia market.
I am going to refer you guys to an article written by whitecoatmafia, he explains it well better than I do. Whitecoatmafia is a doctor/investor who I think is quite an exceptional trader. We have to give credit where credit is due.. My talent is finding talent..I pride myself in that...I think this guy knows his stuff and I agree with him. Like I said you find good investors and if you agree with their thesis...INVEST with them. Now lets discuss RLYP. I know we have good investors in this forum. This is the forum that has been grace by Dan loeb and Dr. Michael burry. I am including a link on white coat mafia’s article on seeking alpha down below...please copy and paste to your web browser and read..
Now lets discuss have an intelligent discussion on rlyp. After all we are all here to make good investment decisions
seekingalpha.com
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