Statistically Indicated Buy Signals (SIBS)

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends
Statistically Indicated Buy Signals (SIBS)

An SI Board Since September 1996

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
12	0	0

Emcee: Randy L. Carter	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

I have been developing statistical models over the last two years to
identify stocks that are trending up and to indicate good times to buy
them. This modeling has resulted in a system that I call SIBS, which
stands for Statistically Indicated Buy Signals. Briefly, the SIBS
system does the following:

1) Detects changes from a down-trend to an up-trend in stock price
2) Statistically confirms the new trend
3) Produces signals when continuation of the trend is likely.

I have been testing the SIBS system publicly since May, 1996 on the 3DO
(THDO) thread entitled "3do: Who bought large position late nov./early
december?" (See posts nubers 114, 116, 161, 164, 431, 433, 438, 463, and
470 for a complete history). I am now tranferring the SIBS testing and
discussion to this thread. The following table summarizes cumulative
results of the test so far:

Purchase Sale

Date Stock Price Date Price Wait (d) Gain (Loss) % Annualized %

5/1/96 NSM 15.75 5/20/96 16.875 19 875 5.6 108
5/14/96 NOVL 14.25 5/23/96 15.25 8 1000 6.1 278
5/24/96 LTD 21.50 holding
5/24/96 NSM 16.25 8/29/96 18.125 97 1625 10.0 38
8/5/96 F 33.50 holding
8/8/96 DGN 10.625 8/21/96 11.625 13 750 7.1 234
8/9/96 ERTS 30.50 8/15/96 32.75 6 2000 6.6 401
8/19/96 BORL 8.625 holding
8/23/96 ERTS 32.00 9/6/96 33.00 14 750 2.3 61
8/29/96 GYMB 29.625 9/4/96 30.813 6 938 3.2 193

I will continue updating this table as I observe new SIBS and make
hypothetical transactions. All hypothetical trades involve 1000 shares
and are made at the closing price on the day posted. I generally sell
after a rise of $1.00/share or more. Net gain is calculated as

gain=(sale price - purchase price) X 1000 - 250

The $250 is subtracted to approximately adjust for the bid/ask spread
and brokers fees. The only exception to this rule in the table above
is NOVL, purchased on 4/14/96. For that transaction, I knew the bid
and ask price at the time of purchase and at the time of sale and calculated
the gain exactly.

I look forward to any comments, questions, or discussion that anyone
may have concerning SIBS.

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
12	I sold F at 34.875 today for a profit of $1125. I don't consider this a su	Randy L. Carter	-	4/17/1997
11	Millard, The scambled data in the middle of my original post was a table at on	Randy L. Carter	-	11/19/1996
10	Randy I just ran across your talk subject on Statistical analysis of stocks.	Millard Schewe	-	11/19/1996
9	Michele, IOMG is not in my data base, currently, but I will add it if you woul	Randy L. Carter	-	11/17/1996
8	Randy, I follow IOMG & would like to see your system comments on it. Thanks	Michele McGlothlin	-	11/16/1996
7	KC, Thanks for your interest in the SIBS/SISS method. What I'm doing at t	Randy L. Carter	-	11/15/1996
6	Do you mind sharing the codes for your SIBS? I would like to test it on my dat	Kai Chung	-	11/15/1996
5	Well, the wait on LE was only 3 days. It went up 2 1/4 today. So, I'll se	Randy L. Carter	-	11/14/1996
4	I see that the table in my original post has become scrambled. Don't know	Randy L. Carter	-	11/12/1996
3	Randy, Thanks for your reply, will be watching your test. KH	Kenneth A. Hintz	-	9/15/1996
2	Thanks Ken. As you watch, keep in mind that I follow 35 stocks. They are: ABF	Randy L. Carter	-	9/13/1996
1	Randy, Looks interesting! I will be watching your (hypothetical) results in the	Kenneth A. Hintz	-	9/13/1996

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