This thread is for my thinking on the market.
Just for the record and easy for myself to check.
Daily Chart Checking
----------------------------------------------------
Major Indices
$INDU (Dow)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SPX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$COMPAQ (NAZ)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Also
$BPCOMPQ and $BPNDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NAMO and $NASI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$RUT (Russell 2000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$WLSH (wilshire 5000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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Key Sectors
$TRAN
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SOX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$OSX (oil service)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$BKX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
RTH (retail holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
BBH (Biotech holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Home Builder (^DJUSHB)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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Gold and Currency and commodity
$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$HUI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XEU (Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XJY (Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$CRB
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Interest rate
$TYX (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$IRX (3 month)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Key Ratios
$HUI:$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
IEF:LQD (credit spread -- if this ratio increase, mean junk bond spread widen, not good for equity market)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX:$INDU (risk taker ratio)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX:$IRX (yield curve)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI:$WTIC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Junk bond trend
LQD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
FHYTX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
SPHIX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
HIO
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
International markets
$NIKK
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
EWJ
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SSEC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
FXI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
==========================================================
Here are short-term, medium term and long-term update on several indices.
=========================================================
Updated 01/13/2005
short-term
9 > 12 ema
$tnx, $nikk
$usd happened 01/07
$xoi (xle) happaned 01/13
9 < 12 ema
$ndx happaned 01/03 (however $compq not yet !!, see below)
$compq happened 01/05
$spx happened 01/05
$indu happened 01/05
$rut (russell 2000) happend 01/04 (and today 01/05, three black crow -- very bearish)
$crb
$hui
$sox
12 > 26 ema
$tnx, $nikk
$osx (oih) happaned 01/13
12 < 26 ema
$gold happened 12/30/2004
$xoi (xle) happaned 01/03
$crb
$hui
$sox
$usd looking to get better here 01/07
$ndx happaned 01/07
$rut happaned 01/07
$compq happened 01/10
(01/10 waiting for $spx and $indu joined)
$tran happened on 01/11/05
$WLSH happened 01/12/05
$BKX 01/12/05
$SPX happened 01/13/05
$INDU happened 01/13/05
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Updated 1/13/2005
Medium-term
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Uya7,14,28!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ll14]&pref=G
Price over 50 sma
$osx (oih) happened on 01/12
Price under 50 sma
$osx (oih) happened on 01/03
$gold (but above 200 day sma)
yhoo happened on 01/04
$ndx just closed below on 01/05
$compq just closed below on 01/05
$rut closed below on 01/05
$tran happened on 01/11
$spx happened on 01/13/05
$wlsh happened on 01/13/05
$indu happened on 01/13/05
Bullish: 20 day over 50 day sma:
$xoi,
$osx,
$ndx,
$nikk,
$tnx
Bearish: 20 day under 50 day sma:
$hui
SMH ($sox very close, on 01/05, it happened on 01/07)
YHOO happened on 01/07
(01/13/2005, now I am looking to find many more here -- first maybe $rut or $ndx)
Price over 200 sma
$nikk
$gold
Price under 200 sma
$hui still at 01/04
$tnx still at 01/04
$sox (smh)
Kiss of death -- 50 and 200 day sma
-- 50 above 200:
-- 50 under 200: $nikk, $sox (smh -- long-term bearish on Naz)
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Updated 1/04/2005 -- update every weekend
Long-term (weekly chart)
Looking at 10, 40 and 80 sma weekly
$hui (barely -- starting to look bearish)
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
ewj
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$xoi
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$osx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
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Updated 01/07/2004
Mega long-term -- looking at 20 and 40 month sma, and 80 month sma
--- It normally takes a while (many years) for these sma
to cross. Look at $nikk, the peak was at late 1989 and 1990, however it took three more years for 40 sma to go under 80 sma. And $tnx 40 sma still over $80 sma for many many years.
20 month sma over 40 month sma: $hui, $osx, $ndx, $nikk
20 month sma under 40 month sma: $tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G |
