This thread is for my thinking on the market.
Just for the record and easy for myself to check.
==============================================================
Here are short-term, medium term and long-term update on several indices.
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Updated 01/25/2005
short-term
9 > 12 ema
$usd happened 01/05
$osx (oih)
$xoi (xle) happaned 01/13
$crb happened 01/14
9 < 12 ema
$ndx happaned 01/03 (however $compq not yet !!, see below)
$compq happened 01/05
$spx happened 01/05
$indu happened 01/05
$rut (russell 2000) happend 01/04 (and today 01/05, three black crow -- very bearish)
$hui
$sox
$nikk (happened 01/20) --watch EWJ closedly
EWJ happened 01/25
$tnx ($tyx)
12 > 26 ema
$nikk
$usd happened 01/10
$osx (oih) happaned 01/13
$xoi (xle) happened 01/18 (last time below happened 01/03, quick switch for this one)
12 < 26 ema
$gold happened 12/30/2004
$crb maybe reverse soon (very close at 01/21)
$hui
$sox
$ndx happaned 01/07
$rut happaned 01/07
$compq happened 01/10
$tran happened on 01/11/05
$WLSH happened 01/12/05
$BKX 01/12/05
$SPX happened 01/13/05
$INDU happened 01/13/05
$tnx ($tyx)
------------------------------------------------------
Updated 1/21/2005
Medium-term
stockcharts.com[w,a]decayiay[de][pb20!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Uya7,14,28!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Uya7,14,28!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ll14]&pref=G
Price over 50 sma
$osx (oih) happened on 01/12 (last time under 01/03)
$usd
Price under 50 sma
$gold (but above 200 day sma)
yhoo happened on 01/04
$ndx just closed below on 01/05
$compq just closed below on 01/05
$rut closed below on 01/05
$tran happened on 01/11
$spx happened on 01/19/05 (last time above, 01/18; last time under 01/13)
$wlsh happened on 01/19/05 (last time above, 01/18;last time under 01/13)
Bullish: 20 day over 50 day sma:
$xoi,
$osx,
$nikk,
Bearish: 20 day under 50 day sma:
$hui
SMH ($sox very close, on 01/05, it happened on 01/07)
YHOO happened on 01/07
(01/13/2005, now I am looking to find many more here -- first maybe $rut or $ndx)
$ndx (happened on 01/20)
$rut (happened on 01/20)
$compq (happened on 01/21)
$tran (happened on 01/21)
$tnx ($tyx)
(01/21 waiting for $spx and $indu to join)
$spx (happened on 01/25)
Price over 200 sma
$nikk
$gold
$hui happened 01/21 (But still under 50 day sma)
Price under 200 sma
$tnx still at 01/04
$sox (smh)
EBAY happened 01/20
Kiss of death -- 50 and 200 day sma
-- 50 above 200:
-- 50 under 200: $nikk, $sox (smh -- long-term bearish on Naz)
-------------------------------------------------------
Updated 1/04/2005
Long-term (weekly chart)
Looking at 10, 40 and 80 sma weekly
$ndx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$spx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$indu
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$hui (barely -- starting to look bearish)
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
ewj
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$xoi
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$osx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
-------------------------------------------------------
Updated 01/07/2004
Mega long-term -- looking at 20 and 40 month sma, and 80 month sma
--- It normally takes a while (many years) for these sma
to cross. Look at $nikk, the peak was at late 1989 and 1990, however it took three more years for 40 sma to go under 80 sma. And $tnx 40 sma still over $80 sma for many many years.
20 month sma over 40 month sma: $hui, $osx, $ndx, $nikk
20 month sma under 40 month sma: $tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
---------------------------------------------------------
Daily Chart Checking
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Major Indices
$INDU (Dow)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SPX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$COMPAQ (NAZ)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Also
$BPCOMPQ and $BPNDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NAMO and $NASI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$RUT (Russell 2000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$WLSH (Wilshire 5000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$VLE (Value Line Arithmetic Index)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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Key Sectors
$TRAN
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SOX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$OSX (oil service)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$BKX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
RTH (retail holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
BBH (Biotech holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Home Builder (^DJUSHB)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
-------------------------------
Gold and Currency and commodity
$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$HUI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XEU (Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XJY (Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$CRB
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Interest rate
$TYX (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$IRX (3 month)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Bond price
$USB (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$UST (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Key Ratios
$HUI:$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
IEF:DHY (credit spread -- if this ratio increase, mean junk bond spread widen, not good for equity market)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Also
$USB:VWEHX for credit spread as well
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX:$INDU (risk taker ratio)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX:$IRX (yield curve)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI:$WTIC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Junk bond trend
SPHIX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
DHY
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
VWEHX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
International markets
$NIKK
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
EWJ
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SSEC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
FXI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G |
