This thread is for my thinking on the market.
Just for the record and easy for myself to check.
Here are short-term, medium term and long-term update on several indices.
=========================================================
Updated 01/05/2005
short-term
9 > 12 ema
$tnx, $nikk
9 < 12 ema
$xoi (xle) happaned 01/03
$osx (oih) happaned 01/03
$ndx happaned 01/03 (however $compq not yet !!, see below)
$compq happened 01/05
$spx happened 01/05
$indu happened 01/05
$rut (russell 2000) happend 01/04 (and today 01/05, three black crow -- very bearish)
=== look at ultrabearish small cap fund -- ucpix
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[d20040105,20050104][pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[d20040105,20050104][pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
$crb
$hui
$sox
$usd (looking to get better here)
12 > 26 ema
$tnx, $nikk
12 < 26 ema
$xoi (xle) happaned 01/03
$osx (oih) happaned 01/05
$crb
$hui
$sox
$usd
I am expecting $rut, $ndx joined this pretty soon !!
------------------------------------------------------
Updated 1/05/2005
Medium-term
Price over 50 sma
$spx just barely -- in a few days, it will be under
Price under 50 sma
$osx (oih) happened on 01/03/04
$gold (but above 200 day sma)
$ndx just closed below on 01/05
$compq just closed below on 01/05
$rut closed below on 01/05
Bullish: 20 day over 50 day sma: $xoi, $osx, $ndx, $nikk, $tnx
Bearish: 20 day under 50 day sma: $hui
Price over 200 sma
$nikk
$gold
Price under 200 sma
$hui still at 01/04
$tnx still at 01/04
$sox (smh)
Kiss of death -- 50 and 200 day sma
-- 50 above 200:
-- 50 under 200: $nikk, $sox (smh -- long-term bearish on Naz)
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Updated 1/04/2005 -- update every weekend
Long-term (weekly chart)
Looking at 10, 40 and 80 sma weekly
Bullish:
$hui (barely -- starting to look bearish)
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
ewj
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$xoi
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
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Updated 12/27/2004
Mega long-term -- looking at 20 and 40 month sma
20 month sma over 40 month sma: $hui, $osx, $ndx, $nikk
20 month sma under 40 month sma: $tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
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Updated 12/27/2004
Super-long 40 month sma and 80 sma
--- It normally takes a while (many years) for this two sma
to cross. Look at $nikk, the peak was at late 1989 and 1990, however it took three more years for 40 sma to go under 80 sma. And $tnx 40 sma still over $80 sma for many many years.
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lah12,26,9!lk14!lf!lg!lp14,3,3!ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lah12,26,9!lk14!lf!lg!lp14,3,3!ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lah12,26,9!lk14!lf!lg!lp14,3,3!ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lah12,26,9!lk14!lf!lg!lp14,3,3!ll14]&pref=G |
