Hi Fellow investors and profiters my name is Mark and I am new to this board. I am a biotech investor for the past 2 years and I like to follow prominent investors in the biotech field. I follow Michael Castor of Sio Capital, Joseph Edelman’s Perceptive Advisors, Peter kolchinskey’s RA capital, orbimed advisors and Baker brothers. I think following biotech hedge managers that have good investing returns is quite profitable as long as you understand why they bought a certain stock and why you should invest with them. I made 400% on NVAX following Ra capital and 100% wins on some of michael castor picks. I just wish I had bigger positions on them but biotech is quite risky. Just pay attention to binary events and other catalyst that might hurt your portfolio. I am sure Biotech investors such as Joseph edelman spent alot of time and money researching a stock before they put their investor’s money at risk. Perceptive advisors has return 40% annualized since 1999. They have RLYP in their portfolio and sold out ZSPH according to their last filing on Sept 2015 (nasdaq). ok enough about me lets talk about RLYP.
Rlyp is a drug that is competing with ZSPH for the $1.5 billion hyperkalemia market. ZSPH has been bought out by AZN for $2.7 billion so they are out of the market but they have not been approved yet by the FDA. Last october RLYP’s drug veltassa was approved by the fda but was taken down from $19 to $10 premarket. FDA boxed warning that it binds other drugs and slap a 6 hour window before you can take it after other drugs. The stock was punished not for its safety issue but because of the inconvience of taking the drugs 6 hours after other drugs. The people that bought during the bloodbath realizing it was an overreaction is now deep in the green. The stock is currently trading at $24 as I write. IF ZSPH is worth $2.7 billion why not rlyp which is currently worth ? of that. ZSPH was bought by azn because #1. lowers potassium faster, # 2. it does not bind other drugs and #3 side effects. There is one problem some of the patients taking ZSPH”s zs-9 experience high blood pressure and fluid overload called edema. Most hyperkalemia patients are chronic kidney disease patients and congestive heart failure. They don’t need more fluid overload and high blood pressure to complicate their health. If I was a doctor I don’t think I wanna find out if my patients will have that side effect. It is very hard to control kidney failure patient’s blood pressure because their kidneys that regulate HTN has been shut down. ZS-9 also was found to bind lithium which is an indication that it binds other drugs. The fda might also slapped zsph with a 6 hour window or ask them to do more drug binding studies thereby taking away their advantage in the near future. I think AZN jump the gun on buying ZSPH. Wall street have overlooked and ignored RLYP thereby giving investors opportunity to buy at $10 and now has recovered to $24. It also has a 6 month head start because zsph will not get an fda decision till may. If ZSPH ran into more problems like fda approval delays because of hypertension side effects and proven that it binds other drugs.. RLYP will get more market share and will be harder for doctors to switch them to zs-9 if rlyp is effective. Big Pharma will be watching RLYP also to see how it performs and if it does well, they might just buy the company to get a piece of the growing hyperkalemia market. I am going to refer you guys to an article written by whitecoatmafia, he explains it well better than I do. Whitecoatmafia is a doctor/investor who I think is quite an exceptional trader. We have to give credit where credit is due.. My talent is finding talent..I pride myself in that...I think this guy knows his stuff and I agree with him. Like I said you find good investors and if you agree with their thesis...INVEST with them. Now lets discuss RLYP. I know we have good investors in this forum. This is the forum that has been grace by Dan loeb and Dr. Michael burry. I am including a link on white coat mafia’s article on seeking alpha down below...please copy and paste to your web browser and read.. Now lets discuss have an intelligent discussion on rlyp. Afterall we are all here to make good investment decisions
seekingalpha.com |
